German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has issued a stark warning that the ongoing war in the Middle East could trigger uncontrolled migration into Europe, with "far-reaching consequences" for the bloc's security, energy supply, and stability. In a statement delivered on Friday, Merz emphasised that an endless conflict is not in Europe's interest, nor is a collapse of Iranian statehood or proxy conflicts on Iranian soil.
Chancellor Merz's Dire Predictions for Europe
Merz articulated that such scenarios could have profound implications for Europe, specifically highlighting risks to security, energy provision, and migration patterns. He underscored that Germany and its European allies share the objectives of the United States and Israel concerning Iran's nuclear and missile programmes, Tehran's threats against Israel, its support for terrorism, and its proxy networks. However, he firmly stated, "The Iranian people have the right to freely decide their own destiny."
Concerns Over Iranian State Collapse
The Chancellor expressed grave concerns about a total collapse of the Iranian state, which he warned would spread chaos across the region. Speaking at a trade fair in Munich, Merz asserted that Germany and its European partners are "pushing hard for Iran's sovereignty to be preserved." He explicitly stated, "We do not want to see a Syrian scenario here," referencing the protracted conflict and refugee crisis stemming from Syria. Merz added, "We want this state to be able to function on its own," regarding Iran.
Merz has appealed to both Washington and the Israeli government to create conditions for Iran's rapid stabilisation, noting Europe's "strong interest" in preventing new waves of refugees from the region. This appeal comes as the United Nations refugee agency declared the Middle East crisis a major humanitarian emergency on Friday, insisting all fleeing civilians be granted safe passage.
Migration and Economic Impacts Already Evident
Migrants have already begun fleeing the war in Iran, with dozens arriving in France today to cross the Channel to the United Kingdom. Reports indicate these migrants arrived in vans at the Loon-Plage migrant camp in Dunkirk after travelling from Iran via Turkey, signalling early movements that could escalate.
Economic Consequences and Fuel Price Surges
Merz has also warned of devastating economic repercussions from the conflict. He noted that the war is damaging economies, particularly through impacts on oil and gas prices. Fuel prices in Germany have risen by approximately one-fifth in recent days, approaching levels seen after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. According to German outlet DW, diesel prices per litre were almost 20% lower one month ago than on Wednesday. Earlier this week, reports emerged of Germans rushing to the neighbouring Czech Republic where fuel is cheaper, illustrating immediate economic strain.
Escalating Military Strikes and International Tensions
Meanwhile, the United States and Israel are intensifying strikes on Tehran, following former President Donald Trump's warning to Iran that the "big one" is coming. On Friday, deafening bangs and multiple plumes of smoke and fireballs were reported as a huge payload hit the Moqaddad base of Iran's Revolutionary Guards. This follows Iran unleashing its "most intense barrage" yet on Thursday night with bombardments on Israel and US allies in the Gulf, threatening to drag more countries into the conflict.
US Military Buildup and Strategic Bomber Deployments
The Islamic Republic vowed the US would "bitterly regret" torpedoing one of its warships, launching hundreds of drones and missiles at Arab neighbours. In response, Trump stated on Friday there would be no deal with Iran except "unconditional surrender," promising to work with allies to bring Iran "back from the brink of destruction" and boost its economy. Speaking at the White House on Thursday, Trump called on members of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, military, and police to lay down arms, offering immunity or warning of "guaranteed death."
US defence secretary Pete Hegseth announced that America will use British RAF bases to "dramatically" increase strikes on Iran, with more fighter squadrons, capabilities, and bomber pulses. He warned the regime, "We have only just begun to fight and fight decisively. If you think you've seen something, just wait." Hegseth added that Iran miscalculates US sustainability, asserting, "Our munitions are full up and our will is ironclad."
America's stealth air fleet, including B-1s, B-2s, and B-52s, is reportedly en route to Diego Garcia in the Chagos Islands and RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire. These strategic bombers, costing up to $2 billion each, can conduct long-range missions undetected while carrying devastating missiles. Sources suggest Saturday could mark D-day for a new gigantic bombardment, exactly a week after "Operation Epic Fury" began. Experts speculate some bombers might deploy the "Mother of All Bombs," a 10-tonne explosive creating 1,000-foot craters, alongside increased sorties by Reaper drones and attacks from aircraft carriers and submarines.
Merz became the first foreign leader to meet with Trump after the US and Israel initiated bombing Iran on Saturday, holding discussions in the Oval Office on Wednesday. This diplomatic engagement underscores the high-stakes nature of the conflict and its potential ripple effects across Europe and beyond.
