The Forewarned War: How Western Intelligence Saw Putin's Plans and Why Few Believed
Drawing on more than 100 interviews with senior intelligence officials and insiders across multiple nations, this exclusive narrative details the meticulous efforts by the United States and Britain to uncover Vladimir Putin's blueprint for invading Ukraine. As the fourth anniversary of the invasion looms, the world grapples with heightened geopolitical instability, prompting European politicians and spy agencies to reflect on the costly oversights of 2022.
The Alarming Phone Call: A CIA Director's Warning
In November 2021, CIA Director William Burns embarked on a critical mission to Moscow, only to find himself relegated to a secure phone line. President Joe Biden had dispatched Burns to caution Putin about the dire economic and political repercussions of an invasion. However, Putin, isolated in his Black Sea residence, dismissed the warning, instead fixating on perceived American threats, such as a warship near Russian waters. This conversation, coupled with tense meetings with Putin's security aides, left Burns profoundly uneasy. Upon his return, when Biden inquired if Putin would proceed, Burns affirmed with a resolute "Yes." Three and a half months later, Putin launched the most significant breach of European security since World War II.
A Spectacular Intelligence Success Marred by Failures
This account, compiled from sources in Ukraine, Russia, the US, and Europe, underscores a paradoxical intelligence landscape. The CIA and MI6 achieved a remarkable feat by accurately predicting the invasion scenario, yet they faltered in anticipating the outcome, assuming a swift Russian victory. More critically, European intelligence services, haunted by the Iraq war's dubious intelligence, refused to believe a full-scale European conflict was plausible in the modern era. They viewed the warnings as fantastical, rooted in scepticism towards American assessments.
Most devastatingly, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spent months dismissing urgent American alerts as scaremongering, stifling concerns within his own military and intelligence circles. "In the final weeks, the intelligence leaders were starting to get it, the mood was different. But the political leadership just refused to accept it until right at the end," recounted a US intelligence official. This denial left Ukraine woefully unprepared for the impending assault.
Putin's Covert Preparations and Western Detection
The CIA traced Putin's invasion ambitions to early 2020, a period marked by constitutional amendments securing his power, COVID-19 isolation, and destabilising actions in Belarus. By spring 2021, Russian troop buildups along Ukraine's borders signalled imminent danger. Despite a temporary de-escalation after a Biden-Putin summit, intelligence later revealed Putin had already opted for a military solution.
In autumn 2021, Washington and London amassed chillingly detailed evidence, suggesting Putin aimed not just for Donbas but for Kyiv itself. At a NATO intelligence meeting, US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines and MI6 chief Richard Moore presented these findings, only to face widespread scepticism. European allies feared provoking Russia, while memories of Iraq fueled distrust. "We had all the same information about the troops at the border, but we differed in our analysis of what was in Putin's head," noted Étienne de Poncins, the French ambassador to Kyiv.
Intelligence Gathering: Sources and Methods
The accuracy of US and British predictions stemmed from a mosaic of intelligence sources. Satellite imagery revealed massive troop movements, while intercepted communications hinted at invasion preparations. Though human sources, such as potential moles in the Kremlin, may have contributed, signals intelligence from agencies like the NSA and GCHQ played a pivotal role. "No human source detected," one insider revealed, emphasising the reliance on technical means. However, Putin's secrecy meant even his inner circle remained largely unaware until weeks before the invasion.
Final Warnings and Unheeded Alarms
By December 2021, Washington and London had a clear picture of Putin's war plan, yet European and Ukrainian resistance persisted. In January 2022, Burns briefed Zelenskyy in person on assassination threats and invasion details, but the president publicly assured Ukrainians of a peaceful summer. Meanwhile, French and German leaders pursued diplomacy, contrasting with Anglo-American urgency.
As February progressed, embassies evacuated, and last-minute preparations unfolded. Polish intelligence confirmed the invasion hours before it began, yet German spy chief Bruno Kahl remained in Kyiv, oblivious to the imminent threat. Ukrainian military leaders, like Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi, implemented covert measures without official sanction, highlighting the leadership's paralysis.
The Invasion and Its Aftermath
On 24 February 2022, Putin announced his "special military operation," launching missile strikes and ground assaults. Zelenskyy, initially shocked, transformed into a defiant wartime leader, staying in Kyiv despite evacuation pleas. The war has since claimed hundreds of thousands of lives, with Russia controlling marginally more territory.
For US and British agencies, the invasion validated their intelligence, restoring credibility post-Iraq. However, they overestimated Russian military prowess and underestimated Ukrainian resilience. "We thought the Russians would be more effective initially – take Kyiv in a couple of weeks, and then the Ukrainians would regroup," admitted Haines. European services, having dismissed the invasion as irrational, faced internal scrutiny for their failure.
Lessons for an Unpredictable World
The Ukraine intelligence saga underscores a vital lesson: dismissing scenarios based on perceived impossibility is perilous. As global uncertainty escalates, agencies now prioritise worst-case planning, from infrastructure attacks to hypothetical invasions. "The main thing we took away from all of this was that we need to work with worst-case scenarios much more than we did before," a German official stated. The legacy of 2022 serves as a stark reminder that in intelligence, rationality must not blind analysts to the unthinkable.
