Carney and Modi Forge New Path Amid Global Trade Shifts
In a significant diplomatic move, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to meet Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday, marking a pivotal effort to mend relations between the two nations. This visit comes after more than eighteen months of diplomatic stalemates and follows recent tensions, including accusations of murder, extortion, and terrorism that had strained bilateral ties.
A Strategic Shift in Foreign Policy
The meeting underscores a stark shift in foreign policy for both countries, driven by what Carney has described as a "rupture in the world order." This visit is Carney's second major diplomatic trip in as many months, following a January delegation to China aimed at resetting relations with Beijing. These efforts highlight the Canadian government's strategy to hedge against trade uncertainty with the United States, its largest trading partner.
Despite sharing the world's largest unprotected border and highly integrated economies, Canada has faced repeated bullying from the US under Donald Trump's administration. In response, Carney has pledged to double Canada's non-US exports within the next decade, making India a key focus due to its economic potential.
Economic Opportunities and Mutual Benefits
India, now the most populous country and one of the fastest-growing major economies globally, presents tremendous opportunities for Canada. Partha Mohanram, director of the India Innovation Institute at the University of Toronto, emphasized that "India is a tremendous country to hitch your wagon to." He noted that while many rich economies are stagnant due to demographics, a deal with India offers access to a rapidly expanding market.
Current trade between Canada and India is valued at less than C$15 billion, but Canada's Indo-Pacific strategy identifies India as a crucial trading partner in the region. Ahead of the Delhi visit, Carney and his delegation held meetings with business leaders in Mumbai, with optimism surrounding a potential 10-year, US$2.8 billion uranium supply deal as a significant outcome.
Shared Challenges with the United States
Both Canada and India have recently faced spats with the United States, their largest trading partner. India reached a truce with the US after disagreements over market access and Russian crude imports, but uncertainty remains due to the unpredictability of White House agreements. Mohanram remarked, "Misery loves company. Both countries can share the feeling of being ill-treated by the US."
He added that there are strengths in mutual cooperation, particularly in energy trade, as India is a massive importer and Canada a major exporter. This complementarity makes Canada highly attractive to India, fostering potential for strengthened economic ties.
Diplomatic Groundwork and Historical Context
Much of the groundwork for this visit has been handled by India's high commissioner to Canada, Dinesh Patnaik, who stated that "both the prime ministers are very keen" on enhancing economic relations. New Delhi is presenting the trip as firmly business-focused, in contrast to the blunder-ridden 2018 visit by former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, which included a cool reception and an embarrassing invitation to a Sikh separatist supporter.
Patnaik highlighted that relations have transformed over recent months, with efforts to reset the relationship to its previous state. "This visit will put a stamp on all the activities that have happened to solidify the relationship and to take it to the next level," he said ahead of the meeting.
Security Concerns and Transnational Repression
Despite Modi's focus on trade, questions linger over India's campaign of transnational repression, which has put Carney in a challenging position. In 2023, Trudeau accused India of orchestrating the assassination of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar, leading to the expulsion of Indian diplomats in 2024. Recent warnings to Sikh activists about credible threats have further complicated matters.
A senior Canadian official expressed confidence that India's campaign of threats and violence has ended, noting that otherwise, Carney would not be making this trip. However, Canada's Public Safety Minister Gary Anandasangaree admitted that "there are outstanding security issues with India," indicating that more work is needed to address these concerns.
This meeting at the G7 summit in Kananaskis, Alberta, on 17 June 2025, photographed by Geoff Robins, symbolizes a critical juncture in Canada-India relations. As both nations navigate global trade uncertainties and diplomatic challenges, this visit could pave the way for a renewed partnership based on mutual economic interests and strategic alignment.
