The smoke has cleared over Caracas, but the political fog remains thick. In a stunning overnight raid, United States forces captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, delivering him to a jail cell in New York City. Yet, on the streets of the capital, a profound paradox emerged: the strongman was gone, but his apparatus of power stood completely undisturbed.
The Seamless Transition: A Deal in the Shadows
Forty-eight hours after the dramatic military operation, the expected chaos of regime change was conspicuously absent. Maduro's inner circle remained firmly in control of state institutions. Streets were calm, if tense, with authorities urging citizens to resume daily life. This bizarre calm points not to a revolution but to a meticulously negotiated transaction.
The available evidence, though still circumstantial, paints a compelling picture. The absence of any organised resistance to a two-hour US aerial incursion into heavily defended Venezuelan airspace strongly suggests prior knowledge and stand-down orders from the country's military high command. This was not a conquest but a coordinated handover.
The true nature of the deal became clearer in the aftermath. At a press conference, former US President Donald Trump made two striking declarations. First, he stated the US intended to take control of Venezuela's vast oil reserves. Second, he indicated that Maduro's vice-president, Delcy Rodríguez, could remain in power if she "does what we want." The country's exiled opposition, led by Nobel laureate María Corina Machado, was summarily sidelined despite her efforts to court Trump.
The Calculus of Power: Why Maduro's Circle Betrayed Him
For key figures within Maduro's regime, the calculus was stark. Facing mounting pressure from Washington, their one bargaining chip was stability. Figures like Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino López, Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello, and Delcy Rodríguez's brother, National Assembly President Jorge Rodríguez, collectively commanded the military, police, paramilitary groups, and legislative authority.
They presented the Trump administration with a simple choice: deal with us and ensure a orderly transition, or install the exiled opposition and face chaotic, protracted insurgency. For a US president historically averse to nation-building, the choice was simple. The prize for the US was twofold: unfettered access to Venezuelan oil and the symbolic capture of Maduro, whom the administration had labelled a "narco-terrorist."
The speed of the subsequent transition was extraordinary. After initial defiance, Delcy Rodríguez swiftly changed her tone, expressing a desire to cooperate with the US. Following a ruling by Venezuela's supreme court, she was sworn in as president, surrounded by Maduro's former allies.
Uncertain Future: A Delicate and Risky Balance
The path ahead for Rodríguez's government is fraught with peril. She must perform a delicate balancing act: following Washington's directives while maintaining a veneer of the anti-imperialist, independent rhetoric that has been a hallmark of Venezuelan politics for over two decades. This must be done with a US armada stationed off the coast, a stark reminder of 21st-century gunboat diplomacy.
However, the regime's commitment to ideology has long been superficial, suggesting the pragmatic bargain may hold. The US also faces constraints; Trump's resistance to a full-scale invasion limits his ability to dictate terms absolutely, granting Caracas some room to manoeuvre.
For the Venezuelan people, both within the country and in the diaspora, the fundamental tragedy persists. The nation remains trapped in a deep, seemingly endless crisis. The machinations and intrigue behind this extraordinary moment in global politics are darkly veiled, but the outcome for now is clear: the faces at the top may have changed, but the underlying structures of power endure.
