Industry experts have expressed doubt over Donald Trump's prediction that US oil companies will invest tens of billions of dollars to rebuild Venezuela's oil infrastructure following the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro. Without an 'iron-clad guarantee' from the US government to reimburse costs, analysts expect firms to proceed with extreme caution.
Trump claimed in an NBC News interview that US oil majors could have an expanded operation 'up and running' in less than 18 months, but companies like ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips and Chevron have declined to outline specific plans. Dan Pickering of Pickering Energy Partners said a production bounce would likely take three years, with an increase of about half a million barrels per day by late 2028 or 2029.
Elliott Abrams, Trump's former special envoy to Venezuela, noted that while firms may express interest, actual investment is uncertain. Pickering added that companies want to 'avoid getting screwed' and need protection from sovereign risk, including potential nationalisation or policy changes by a future US administration.
The cost of rebuilding is vast: Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy estimates that adding 500,000 to one million barrels per day would require over $10bn in two to three years, while restoring output to early 2010s levels of 2.5 million bpd could cost $80bn to $90bn over six to seven years.
