The Scottish parliamentary election on 7 May is widely expected to deliver a fifth consecutive term for the SNP, with John Swinney set to remain first minister. Polling suggests the party will secure between 35 and 40 per cent of the vote, enough to win around 60 constituency seats and potentially a small majority in the 129-seat Holyrood chamber.
The SNP's dominance is underpinned by extreme fragmentation among its opponents. Labour and Reform UK are scrapping for second place, while the Greens, Conservatives, and Liberal Democrats all retain enough support to win seats. This kaleidoscope of opposition makes tactical voting difficult, allowing the SNP to divide and rule despite a substantial anti-SNP vote.
However, the expected result will hardly be a resounding vote of confidence. Support for the SNP is lower than when Nicola Sturgeon led them to victory in 2021, and the mandate for a second independence referendum is weak. Swinney is likely to need polling support for independence at 60 per cent or above to avoid a second defeat, and Sir Keir Starmer would feel no pressure to accede to such a request.
The SNP has survived scandals, leadership changes, and the collapse of the SNP-Green coalition, but its victory owes more to the weakness of its opponents than its own strength. Labour's support has collapsed due to UK-level travails, despite Scottish leader Anas Sarwar's attempts to distance himself from London. Reform UK has surged in Scotland, reaching around 15 per cent in polls, driven by immigration and disillusionment with the Conservatives.
If Labour slips into third place, Sarwar's position could be precarious. The Conservatives, who beat Labour to second place in 2021, remain in the mix. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats and Greens will also win seats, further diluting the opposition vote. The SNP's longevity in power, if it lasts until 2031, would be the second longest period of electoral dominance in the UK for over a century, behind only Welsh Labour.
