Welsh Labour, the most successful election-winning machine in the democratic world, is facing an existential crisis as it braces for defeat in next month's Senedd election after 27 years in power. According to the latest poll, Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are neck and neck, with Labour's collapse leaving a vacuum that former voters are filling at opposite ends of the political spectrum.
Professor Laura McAllister of Cardiff University described the election as 'huge', noting that the possibility of Labour losing power and Plaid Cymru entering government as a senior partner for the first time would be existential for both the party and Wales. Losing Wales after a century would be another blow to Prime Minister Keir Starmer, likely amplifying calls for his resignation.
Welsh Labour's record in office is mixed. While supporters argue the party protected public services from austerity, Brexit and the pandemic, Wales has fallen behind other UK nations in key metrics. About 20% of Welsh NHS patients wait over a year for hospital treatment, compared to 4% in England, and Welsh children's reading, maths and science skills are the lowest of the four nations.
A senior Labour source acknowledged the need for a 'critical debate about what the party stands for' after the election, stressing the importance of understanding why public trust was lost. The scandal-plagued premiership of Vaughan Gething and Starmer's unpopularity have further weakened the party, despite Westminster interventions such as saving jobs at Tata Steel and approving a nuclear reactor in Anglesey.
