A seismic shift in Welsh politics is underway, according to a devastating new poll that predicts Labour could lose nearly half its Westminster seats in Wales at the next general election.
The exclusive Savanta survey for ITV Wales projects that Sir Keir Starmer's party would see its representation plummet from the 22 seats won under Jeremy Corbyn in 2019 to just 14 or 15. This would mark Labour's worst performance in Wales since 1918, a catastrophic result for a party that has long considered Wales its heartland.
Conservative Resurgence and Plaid Cymru Gains
The poll indicates significant gains for both the Welsh Conservatives and Plaid Cymru. The Conservatives are projected to increase their tally from 14 to as many as 16 seats, while Plaid Cymru could nearly double their representation from four to seven MPs.
This dramatic reversal of fortunes suggests Welsh voters are turning away from Labour in unprecedented numbers, with the party's support appearing to be crumbling across its traditional strongholds.
Key Constituencies at Risk
Several high-profile Labour figures could find themselves out of a job if these projections hold. Shadow Welsh Secretary Jo Stevens is forecast to lose her Cardiff Central seat to the Liberal Democrats, while the Tories are predicted to capture the Vale of Glamorgan from Labour.
In a particularly symbolic blow, Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney—a constituency that has elected Labour MPs for over a century—is now considered a three-way marginal, with Plaid Cymru mounting a serious challenge.
Expert Analysis: A Political Earthquake
Professor Roger Awan-Scully of Cardiff University described the findings as "pretty catastrophic for Labour," noting that the party appears to be losing support across multiple regions of Wales simultaneously.
"What we're seeing is Labour support falling away pretty much everywhere," Awan-Scully stated. "They're losing votes to the Conservatives in the north and to Plaid Cymru in the west."
The poll suggests that Welsh Labour First Minister Mark Drakeford's popularity has declined significantly, with his net approval rating dropping from +25 in December to just +3 in the latest survey.
Methodology and Margin of Error
The survey interviewed 1,004 Welsh adults between June 21 and 26, with a margin of error of approximately +/- 3%. While polls provide a snapshot rather than a definitive prediction, the consistency of Labour's decline across multiple surveys suggests a genuine erosion of support.
As the political landscape in Wales undergoes its most dramatic transformation in decades, all parties will be reassessing their strategies in what promises to be one of the most closely watched battlegrounds in the next general election.
