A new report from the United States Congressional Research Service has raised the possibility of not selling any nuclear submarines to Australia under the Aukus agreement, instead retaining the vessels under US command to be operated out of Australian bases. The report, released on 26 January, argues that selling submarines to Australia could weaken US deterrence and warfighting capability in a potential conflict with China over Taiwan.
The report cites statements from Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles and the chief of navy that Australia has made “no promises” to support the United States in the event of war with China over Taiwan. It suggests that selling three to five Virginia-class submarines to Australia would convert boats available for a US-China crisis into ones that might not be available, potentially weakening deterrence.
Under the existing Aukus “optimal pathway”, Australia is set to buy between three and five Virginia-class submarines, with the first delivery in 2032, followed by eight Australian-built boats based on a UK design in the early 2040s. However, the report proposes an alternative “military division of labour” where the US retains the submarines and operates them from Australian bases, alongside planned rotations of US and UK attack submarines.
The report also suggests that Australia could use the money saved from not purchasing submarines to invest in other capabilities, such as long-range anti-ship missiles, drones, or B-21 bombers, potentially acting as a subordinate force in support of US missions. Additionally, it raises cybersecurity concerns, noting that sharing nuclear submarine technology with Australia would increase the attack surface for potential adversaries like China and Russia.
The debate is further complicated by low US shipbuilding rates. The US Navy currently has only 49 submarines against a goal of 66, and shipyards have failed to meet the required build rate of two boats per year since 2022, producing only 1.1 to 1.2 annually. US law prohibits the sale of submarines to Australia if they are needed for the US fleet, requiring the president to certify that the transfer will not degrade US undersea capability.
