US Escalates Pressure on Venezuela with Major Military Deployment
The United States has assembled its most significant military presence in the Caribbean since the 1989 invasion of Panama, marking a severe escalation in the ongoing tensions between Washington and Caracas. The Trump administration is intensifying its campaign against Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, publicly accusing him of overseeing the ‘Cartel of the Suns’ drug-trafficking organisation and placing a $50 million bounty on his head.
President Donald Trump has remained deliberately vague about his ultimate intentions, stating that all options, from a full-scale military intervention to a negotiated exit for Maduro, remain on the table. This uncertainty was amplified when US officials in Washington DC briefed that a ‘new phase’ in the operation was imminent.
Flights Cancelled and Terrorist Designation
The situation intensified over the weekend when several international airlines cancelled flights to and from Venezuela. This followed an official warning from the US Federal Aviation Administration, which urged civilian aircraft to exercise extreme caution due to the ‘worsening security situation and heightened military activity’ in the country's airspace.
Adding legal weight to the confrontation, the US State Department's designation of the Cartel de los Soles as a foreign terrorist organisation is set to take effect. The Venezuelan military has vehemently rejected the allegations against Maduro as a ‘vile lie to justify an illegitimate and illegal intervention’.
While experts clarify that the ‘cartel’ is not a traditional criminal syndicate but rather a term describing how Maduro permits criminal networks to operate to maintain power, the terrorist label could provide a degree of legal cover for any future US military action.
A ‘War on Drugs’ Justifying Deadly Strikes
The US has justified its escalating military posture under the banner of the ‘war on drugs’. This campaign began in earnest in September when a US military strike hit a small open boat, allegedly carrying drugs, and killed eleven people.
Since that initial engagement, the US has conducted at least 21 more strikes on vessels in the Caribbean and Pacific. These attacks have resulted in a total of 83 deaths, which the United Nations and other humanitarian organisations have condemned as extrajudicial executions.
Critically, the US has failed to provide public evidence that the targeted vessels were transporting drugs. Legal experts further argue that even if they were, these boats posed no immediate threat that would warrant lethal force. The only two survivors of these attacks were returned to Ecuador and Colombia, where they have faced no charges due to a lack of evidence provided by US authorities.
The justification for these strikes has been further called into question by data. A 2020 US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) report estimated that only 8% of cocaine reaching the US comes via the Caribbean, with the vast majority, 74%, arriving via the Pacific route. Furthermore, President Trump's claim that boats were ‘stacked up with fentanyl’ is highly questionable, as the drug is not produced in significant quantities in South America.
An Arsenal at the Doorstep
The recent military surge is substantial. It began in August with the arrival of the Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group. In a major show of force, the Pentagon then deployed the USS Gerald R Ford, the world's newest and largest aircraft carrier, which arrived in the Caribbean on 11 November with more than 4,000 sailors and tactical fighter jets.
Analysts estimate the total number of US troops in the region has now reached approximately 12,700. While this is considered insufficient for a full-scale ground invasion, which would require up to 150,000 soldiers, it is more than adequate for launching airstrikes on specific regime or criminal facilities.
The US also maintains a network of military bases and Cooperative Security Locations (CSLs) in the region, including in Puerto Rico, Honduras, and Cuba. The CSLs in Aruba and Curaçao are the closest to the Venezuelan coast, though their use in an offensive operation would require authorisation from the Netherlands.
Satellite imagery has confirmed that the former Roosevelt Road naval station in Puerto Rico is being upgraded, with taxiways being resurfaced and expanded, while US Marines have been conducting exercises there since August.
Any military action would have profound consequences for Venezuela's population. The majority of citizens live along the northern coast, including the capital Caracas, which is home to about 3 million people and lies just nine miles from the sea, placing it within easy reach of US air and missile power.
