Britain's vital supply chains are unprepared for the prospect of a major shock such as war with Russia, and bold steps are needed to catch up with “worst-case scenario” planning by European states, ministers have been warned. The warnings are contained in research by the National Preparedness Commission (NPC), which promotes national crisis planning and is overseen by a panel including senior figures from emergency services, the NHS and experts on risk and security.
The report, titled “Future-proofing Security of Supply in a Contested World”, puts a spotlight on the resilience of Britain’s supply chain and how it could be tested by looming dangers ranging from a fresh pandemic, the climate crisis or a war with Russia. It said that Britain is lagging behind other European countries when it comes to the stockpiling of supplies such as critical medicines, and called for fresh thinking.
In terms of stockpiling for the health sector alone, it noted that medicine suppliers are required to hold at least eight weeks of buffer stock for hospitals, but compliance is patchy and not mandated for pharmacies serving primary care. The government also has no intention to produce a critical medicines list or to strategically stockpile critical medicines or medical equipment, other than to assist military personnel in the event of a chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear attack. By contrast, many EU states require pharmaceutical companies to hold buffer stocks of designated medicines ranging from one month to six months.
When it comes to food supply, the UK is one of the least self-sufficient countries in Europe. The government neither has a strategic stockpile nor does it require big wholesalers and distributors to hold buffer stocks. By contrast, countries such as Norway and Sweden have begun to rebuild emergency grain and food reserves while other EU states proactively encourage households to store several days’ worth of food and water for emergencies.
The report warned that recent global events such as the Iran war and repeated lurches in international relations raised profound questions about the future ability of the UK to access raw materials and components. Britain also faces being squeezed by what the report describes as the “hard-nosed nationalism” of the US, the collaborations of EU states, China’s manufacturing and Russia’s war economy footing.
“It is a mistake to assume that catastrophic events will not happen,” warned the NPC report. “The closure of the strait of Hormuz and disruption to regional air traffic due to the US-Israel war with Iran in March 2026 is the most recent thud in a drumbeat of wake-up calls about supply chain resilience.”
