When Munich airport was forced to close on 2 October after a suspected drone incursion, dozens of flights were cancelled and thousands of passengers were left stranded on the eve of a German national holiday and Oktoberfest. A week earlier, Copenhagen and Aalborg airports closed following sightings of unmanned aerial systems in Danish airspace. In the month since a swarm of Russian drones violated Polish airspace—three were shot down—a rash of similar incidents has been reported across Germany, the Baltic and Nordic countries, often over power plants and military bases.
Russia’s alleged hybrid war has suddenly begun to feel uncomfortably close for many Europeans, potentially reaching into cities far from the frontline. Public anxiety is mounting, particularly at Nato’s borders. Strange red lights seen on the west coast of Norway are a new source of collective stress, echoing historical episodes such as Soviet ghost planes in the 1930s and later UFO sightings.
Suspicion that the Kremlin is orchestrating a shadow war of sabotage and subterfuge is not new, though Moscow denies it. Fiona Hill, former White House Russia adviser, warned in June that Russia was already at war with Europe. The latest drone episodes suggest a gear change, with Russia accelerating its hybrid campaign in daring new ways, possibly using oil tankers from its illicit shadow fleet as launchpads for drones.
European leaders face a dilemma: respond and risk escalation, or face accusations of weakness. Shooting down airspace violators is not always lawful or desirable, and Nato leaders must calibrate their response to ambiguous incursions in the grey zone. The attacker’s identity is not always clear, and nobody wants to be provoked into escalation against a nuclear-armed superpower. Yet doing nothing is not an option, as polls show an overwhelming majority of EU citizens want protection from security threats.
The latest threats are exposing deep divisions. Ursula von der Leyen presented plans for a drone wall—an integrated detection, tracking and interception system—at an EU summit in Copenhagen, but the discussion behind closed doors suggested it is not imminent. Neither Friedrich Merz nor Emmanuel Macron showed support, and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni complained that southern Europe was being neglected. A lack of mutual trust is exacerbated by fears that the US cannot be relied on to help.
In the longer term, responding to hybrid war is as much about psychology as beefing up armed response capability. Elisabeth Braw, a Swedish security expert, says these attacks have two aims: disruption, and confusing and scaring people so they lose faith in authorities and liberal democracy. Provocations are attractive to Russia because they cause chaos and disharmony, ultimately hoping to get people to flirt with autocracy. By carefully anticipating the chaos, Europe can better defend itself.
