Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte has delivered a stark assessment of Europe's defence capabilities, bluntly dismissing the idea that the continent could manage without American military support. Speaking to members of the European Parliament in Brussels, Rutte was unequivocal: "If anyone thinks that the European Union, or Europe as a whole, can defend itself without the US, keep on dreaming. You can't. We can't."
European Leaders Push Back Against Rutte's Remarks
Rutte's comments, which included a suggestion that replacing the US nuclear deterrent would require doubling defence spending, left some MEPs angered. The former Dutch prime minister, who previously faced mockery for referring to Donald Trump as "Daddy", has reignited tensions over Europe's reliance on Washington.
France's Foreign Minister, Jean-Noël Barrot, swiftly responded on social media, asserting that "Europeans can and must take charge of their own security." Similarly, Spain's Foreign Minister, José Manuel Albares, advocated for a European army, noting that while it wouldn't happen overnight, Europe needs comprehensive deterrence strategies encompassing economic, political, and security measures.
The Elusive Concept of a European Army
The notion of a European army continues to provoke more questions than answers. Is it an EU-wide force or a broader European initiative? Would it be a new entity commanded from Brussels or an enhanced version of existing structures? Sophia Besch, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, observed that the idea remains vague, allowing supporters to see it as visionary while critics view it as overreach.
Despite public discord, there is a growing consensus that Nato's European members must increase their contributions. EU Foreign Policy Chief Kaja Kallas emphasised this week that Nato must "become more European" to maintain its strength, warning that no great power has ever outsourced its survival and endured.
Defence Spending and Strategic Challenges
Nato has pledged to raise defence spending to 5% of national income by 2035, with the EU launching an €800 billion defence spending plan. However, after what some describe as a "long holiday from history," Europe faces significant hurdles in coordinating its efforts.
Camille Grand, former Nato Assistant Secretary-General, told the Guardian that Europeans are moving in the right direction but require sustained effort over several years to acquire the necessary capabilities and reduce dependency on the US. He noted that while Europe might not achieve complete autonomy by a specific date like 2030, significant progress is possible in areas such as intelligence, satellites, and long-range missiles.
US Commitments Under Scrutiny
Donald Trump's unpredictable stance, including threats over Greenland and fluctuating support for Ukraine, has cast doubt on Washington's reliability in a crisis. Tobias Billström, former Swedish Foreign Minister, expressed confidence that the US would honour its Nato obligations under Article 5, highlighting benefits like Arctic military capabilities from members such as Finland and Norway.
However, Besch argued that trust in US security guarantees has eroded among European policymakers. She warned that without coordinated spending, Europe risks pouring vast sums into defence without achieving greater independence from the US in the coming decades.
Fragmentation and Industrial Rivalries
Europe's defence landscape is plagued by fragmentation, with costly duplication and incompatible systems hindering battlefield effectiveness. A report by former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi highlighted that EU countries have supplied Ukraine with 10 different types of howitzers, creating logistical challenges, while operating 12 different battle tank models compared to the US's single type.
The troubled €100 billion Franco-German fighter jet project exemplifies these issues, beset by disagreements and mistrust. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz recently suggested scaling it down to joint systems without an aircraft, potentially symbolising European defence shortcomings.
Redefining European Strategic Interests
Besch emphasised that Europe must move beyond simply trying to replace US capabilities and instead define its own strategic interests. This could involve developing a European version of nuclear deterrence or safeguarding interests in regions from the Arctic to the Pacific with more agile systems.
"My fear is that we are still caught up in this conversation around 'can we replace the US', rather than trying to decide what are we actually trying to do without them," she concluded, urging a shift in focus towards autonomous European defence planning.
