A stark defence report from Japan has raised the alarm over a shifting global power dynamic, warning that a de facto alliance between China, Russia, and North Korea is creating a "new world order" that presents the most severe security challenge since the Cold War.
A Formidable Strategic Bloc Emerges
The China Security Report 2026, published by the National Institute for Defence Studies (NIDS), a think tank for Japan's defence ministry, details how the strategic partnership among the three nations is becoming increasingly assertive. The report states that while a formal military alliance has not been signed, the countries have established a de facto coordinated relationship that functions as a strategic bloc.
This concerning development comes amid a significant deterioration in Japan's relations with China. Tensions were further inflamed when Japan's new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, recently suggested a Chinese attack on Taiwan could trigger a Japanese military response if it threatened Japan's survival. Beijing demanded a retraction and advised its citizens against travelling to Japan, leading to mass cancellations that could harm the Japanese economy.
Drivers of the New Alliance
The report notes that China is aggressively expanding its political and military influence. Simultaneously, Russia's war in Ukraine has pushed Moscow into a tighter embrace with both Beijing and Pyongyang. North Korea is capitalising on this geopolitical turbulence to advance its nuclear ambitions and secure greater independence.
"North Korea has become capable of confronting the United States on its own by securing more independent options through enhanced deterrence," the report stated. It quoted analyst Zhang Tuosheng, who warned that North Korea's nuclear development could trigger a domino effect, potentially leading to the nuclearisation of Japan and South Korea and the "all-out collapse" of the international non-proliferation regime.
A pivotal moment of this consolidation was the 3 September 2025 military parade in Beijing, where Chinese leader Xi Jinping, North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un, and Russian President Vladimir Putin stood together for the first time. The report's lead author, Masayuki Masuda, noted that joint military exercises between China and Russia serve to signal global intent and test operational capabilities.
Implications for Japan and Global Security
The report concludes that these coordinated actions may create "worrisome situations for Japan" and could lead to a three-front contingency, with simultaneous pressure from China, Russia, and North Korea. This would stretch Japan's defences in an unprecedented way.
The emerging dynamic points towards an intensifying bloc confrontation in Northeast Asia, pitting the Japan-US-South Korea partnership against the China-Russia-North Korea axis. The report urges policymakers to prepare for a world where China's global influence grows, Russia remains militarised and unpredictable, and North Korea operates with newfound confidence under the protection of two major powers.
