Defence Expert Warns Iran Conflict Could Escalate Into Devastating 'Forever War'
A leading defence expert has issued a stark warning that the current military operation in Iran could transform into a prolonged and bloody "forever war," with the country's rulers prepared to murder "hundreds of thousands" of their own citizens to maintain their grip on power.
Regime's Ruthless Determination
Professor Anthony Glees, a professor of politics at the University of Buckingham and former special adviser to the Foreign Office, told the Mirror that Iran's leadership appears unafraid to employ extreme violence against its population. He emphasized that the conflict will only conclude if former US President Donald Trump "calls it quits" and abandons the joint military operation with Israel.
While the Ayatollah was eliminated within hours of the bombardment beginning, Professor Glees noted there is no viable opposition leader ready to assume control. He warned that the "fanatic" Iranian Revolutionary Guards could potentially slaughter hundreds of thousands of Iranians to prevent a revolution and sustain the current regime.
Historical Parallels and Misguided Assumptions
The professor cautioned against comparisons to US actions in Venezuela, stating they fail to grasp the potential scale of bloodshed in Iran. "If 'regime change from the air' were going to work, a revolution would have broken out in Iran on Saturday evening," Professor Glees said today.
He suggested that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might have told Trump they could replicate the Venezuela operation by eliminating the regime's leadership and installing a compliant alternative. "Of course, if so, this shows a total misunderstanding of the deeply ideological nature of the Iranian regime, fanatical Islamists to their core," Professor Glees explained.
Ideological Foundations and Population Dynamics
Professor Glees highlighted that Iran, with a population of 94 million, presents a fundamentally different challenge than Venezuela. "There are no pro-US or pro-Israel ayatollahs," he stated. While many Iranians despise the ayatollahs and their actions, millions have been indoctrinated by the mullahs and would support extreme measures to preserve the regime.
"They were content to see thousands killed a few weeks ago; they will be content to see hundreds of thousands killed by the Revolutionary Guards in order to sustain the regime of the ayatollahs," he warned.
Lessons from Recent History
The professor urged observers to remember the lessons of recent history, pointing to Iraq in 2003 and Libya in 2011 as examples where "regime change from the air has never been successfully carried out." These interventions often lead to prolonged instability and conflict rather than swift political transitions.
Global Economic Consequences
The Royal Navy has deployed the Type 45 destroyer HMS Dragon following attacks on RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus by suspected Iranian drones. Professor Glees warned that the effects of this conflict will extend far beyond the Middle East, impacting British and European consumers through higher petrol prices and energy bills.
"As some of us predicted Iran has lashed out and will continue to lash out in the Middle East and in the Gulf States," he said. "That not only ensures widespread chaos, it also ensures a massive economic hit on global trade and energy prices."
While the United States remains self-sufficient in oil due to domestic supplies and access to Venezuelan oil, Professor Glees noted that "all this screws the rest of us, I'm afraid," highlighting the disproportionate economic burden on Britain and Europe.
Former President Trump has stated the joint US-Israel military operation could last four to five weeks or "far longer," underscoring the potential for prolonged engagement. Professor Glees' analysis suggests Iran's rulers are prepared for a protracted conflict, willing to sacrifice enormous numbers of lives to maintain power, potentially creating a devastating forever war with far-reaching consequences.
