The outcome of the Middle East conflict may hinge on which side runs out of missiles or interceptors first, according to analysts and officials. Since Saturday, Iran and its proxies have launched over 1,000 strikes across nearly a dozen countries, while US and Israeli forces have targeted Iranian missile stockpiles and infrastructure. The geographical spread makes this the widest conflict in the region since World War II.
Stacie Pettyjohn, director of the defense program at the Center for a New American Security, described the situation as a 'salvo competition'—an exchange of volleys of precision-guided weapons. 'The question is who has the deeper magazines of key weapons, and the big unknown is how deep Iran inventories are,' she said. Iranian attacks on Israel have become less frequent, possibly due to a desire to preserve reserves or an inability to fire more.
Iran's strategy may be to wear down enemies by undermining morale and raising financial costs. 'There is no such thing as 100% defence. It's a war of attrition,' said Tal Inbar, a senior research fellow at the Missile Defence Advisory Alliance. He noted that during last summer's 12-day war, Israel's interceptor stocks ran low, suggesting that duration is partly determined by air defence missile availability.
The United Arab Emirates issued a statement rebutting reports of running out of interceptors, claiming a 'robust strategic stockpile.' It reported destroying 161 of 174 ballistic missiles and 645 of 689 drones. Iranian strikes have also targeted US and civilian sites in Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, and a British base in Cyprus. Oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia has been damaged.
