The former head of Britain's Secret Intelligence Service, MI6, has issued a stark assessment of the Iranian regime, stating it is politically weaker than before but retains its brutal capacity for internal repression.
Regime Weakened by Incompetence and Regional Setbacks
Sir Richard Moore, who led MI6 until last year, pointed to a combination of domestic and international factors for the regime's diminished standing. He cited its long track record of economic mismanagement and incompetence, which has left it with no answers for its people's financial woes.
Critically, Sir Richard highlighted the impact of the '12-day war' in 2025 and the damaging of Iran's proxy forces across the Middle East. "They are weaker," he stated, "But their capacity for cruelty and repression... has not gone away. And they will try and crush this."
Protests Show Widespread Discontent
His comments come amid a significant crackdown on protests across Iran, where hundreds have been killed and thousands detained in an uprising against Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's rule. Sir Richard noted the significance of the unrest's geographical reach across Tehran and its appeal to people from all walks of life.
On potential US involvement, following President Donald Trump's remarks that Iran "wants to negotiate," the former spy chief was cautious. He emphasised that Iranians must decide their own future and any external support must be "carefully calibrated" to avoid rebounding on the protesters.
Debate Over Terror Listing for Revolutionary Guards
The analysis comes as the UK government faces calls, including pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer, to proscribe Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organisation. Sir Richard offered a nuanced intelligence perspective on this move.
While describing the IRGC as a "very bad organisation that does very bad things," he cautioned that proscription is a tool designed for non-state terror groups. "It won't have a practical effect," he said, suggesting its impact would be largely symbolic and more about "us feeling better about ourselves."
This view was echoed by Business Secretary Peter Kyle, who stated the government had "already used the sanctions against Iran to the full extent we can." He noted that the independent reviewer of terrorism legislation had advised that such domestic laws are not appropriate for state bodies, but confirmed the government was examining the issue closely with international partners.
