Two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border have warned that a referendum on a united Ireland could repeat the chaos of the Brexit vote unless politicians prepare properly. Fintan O’Toole of the Irish Times and Sam McBride of the Belfast Telegraph argue that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially seismic constitutional change.
In their book For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Royal Irish Academy and the University of Notre Dame, the authors analyse the political, economic and cultural rationales for unification. They warn against a vague, 'thumbs up-thumbs down' vote that could divide society and leave both winners and losers uncertain of the outcome.
Under the Good Friday Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must call a referendum if a majority appears likely to support unification. Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving the timing unclear.
O’Toole said the lesson of Brexit has not been learned: 'Stuff can come out of the blue and gather momentum very quickly.' He added that the political architecture of the archipelago remains unstable. McBride noted that while there is huge interest in the subject, serious debate has been lacking, with few politicians engaging with basics such as what sort of state—unitary or federal—would be created.
The authors do not endorse unification or the status quo, instead presenting impartial arguments covering flags, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt and the risk of loyalist violence. A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic, where voters favour unification in principle but reject higher taxes or a new flag.
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and could happen abruptly if a 'mad or feckless' secretary of state calls one. He said both nationalists and unionists have legitimate arguments, and each side has something to learn from the other. O’Toole urged Westminster to join the debate, warning that the issue is about the future of the entire archipelago.
