In mid-February, infectious disease epidemiologists were already deeply concerned about the emerging coronavirus threat. However, for 11 critical days in March, the UK government failed to act on the best available scientific advice, according to Professor Helen Ward of Imperial College London.
Professor Ward states that politicians refused to listen to recommendations from the World Health Organization, China, and Italy, which called for testing, tracing, and isolation to suppress transmission. On 12 March, the government abruptly abandoned containment and stopped community case-finding and contact-tracing, shifting to a strategy of slowing spread while protecting the vulnerable.
Despite a 9 March report suggesting social distancing would have the biggest impact, no such measures were implemented that week. On 16 March, a report by Professor Neil Ferguson estimated that without strong suppression, 250,000 people could die in the UK. The government then recommended social distancing but left enforcement to individuals and employers.
It was only on 23 March that a stringent lockdown and economic support were announced. Professor Ward warns that tens or hundreds of thousands of people may have been infected between 12 and 23 March, and that Prime Minister Boris Johnson's own infection and ICU stay might have been avoided if remote working had been mandated earlier.
The current best estimate is that around 1% of those infected will die, highlighting the consequences of delayed action. The government must learn from this mistake, experts conclude.
