Ben Wellings, associate professor of politics and international relations at Monash University, has warned that the United Kingdom could disintegrate rapidly if current political trends continue. Writing in response to a recent editorial on Britain's changing political geography, Wellings argues that the weakening of pro-integration parties and the rise of nationalist sentiment pose a serious threat to the union.
Wellings notes that 20th-century history shows plurinational polities can collapse quickly when pro-integration parties weaken and political elites in the majority nation shift their attitudes. He points to the anticipated decline in support for Labour and the Conservatives in the May 2026 elections as a potential sign that the centre may not hold.
While English political elites currently remain broadly in favour of the British project, Wellings highlights the risk posed by Reform UK and a Conservative Party that may increasingly adopt an English nationalist stance. He argues that Brexit marked a turning point where English nationalism shifted from an integrative to a disintegrative mode, first directed at the EU and now manifesting as British nativism.
Wellings concludes that this version of Britishness may not be enough to reverse long-term trends towards fragmentation. He calls for investing Englishness with a progressive political project to counter xenophobic nationalism and prevent the UK's disintegration.
