An expert in politics has issued a stark warning that the continuation of the United Kingdom in its present form can no longer be assumed. Ben Wellings, an associate professor, points to historical patterns and current political shifts as serious threats to the union's stability.
The Precarious State of Plurinational Polities
Twentieth-century history provides a sobering lesson: when multinational states collapse, the process tends to be swift. According to Wellings, writing in a letter to the Guardian, the UK now exhibits crucial conditions that have preceded such collapses elsewhere. These include the significant weakening of political parties that actively support integration and the evolving attitudes of the majority nation's political elite.
The anticipated decline in support for both the Labour and Conservative parties in the upcoming May 2026 elections could serve as a key indicator. This potential erosion of the traditional centre-ground forces raises the alarming prospect that, politically, "the centre may not hold."
The English Question and the Brexit Pivot
Currently, the stance of England's political establishment—encompassing politicians, civil servants, and commentators—remains largely supportive of the British project. However, Wellings highlights the disruptive role of Reform UK, a party born from what he terms the "historic ambiguity in the expression of English nationalism." He also notes that the modern Conservative Party, leaning more towards the radical right than traditional conservatism, might be tempted to shift its focus from a British to a predominantly English identity.
The 2016 Brexit referendum marked a pivotal moment for English nationalism. Wellings argues it represented a switch from a long-standing habit of supporting the political structures England was part of—be it the Empire, the UK, or the EU—to an actively disintegrative mode. That energy was initially directed outward at the European Union, with profound consequences. Now, with the EU no longer a target, nationalism in England has become dominated by a form of British nativism.
A Progressive Future for Englishness?
This nativist version of British identity, the academic contends, is unlikely to counteract the longer-term trends pointing towards national fragmentation. Given this precarious situation, Wellings proposes a crucial alternative. He suggests it is now imperative to invest "Englishness with a progressive political project," rather than leaving the concept to be defined solely by a xenophobic British nativism.
The central message is clear: complacency about the UK's constitutional future is a dangerous luxury. The combined forces of electoral change, ambiguous national identities, and the legacy of Brexit have created a landscape where the union's disintegration must be taken as a serious political possibility.
