Hospitals across the UK are preparing for a potentially severe flu season, driven by a mutated strain of the virus that has become dominant. The strain, a descendant of the H3N2 subtype that fuelled Australia's worst flu season on record, is spreading rapidly, particularly among younger people, and is expected to lead to a wave of hospital admissions when it reaches the elderly.
The mutated virus, which emerged through a natural process called antigenic drift, has triggered an earlier-than-usual start to the flu season. Scientists estimate the R value for the current strain is around 1.4, higher than the typical 1.1 to 1.2, indicating increased transmissibility. Health officials are concerned that the mutations may help the virus evade immune defences, though it is too early to determine if it causes more severe illness.
NHS managers are ramping up vaccination efforts for staff and communities, expanding same-day emergency care, and treating more patients in the community to reduce hospital admissions. The efforts come as resident doctors in England continue a five-day strike over pay, prompting hospitals to implement contingency plans, including bringing in consultants for extra shifts and rescheduling appointments.
Early data from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) suggests current vaccines are less effective at preventing infections from the mutated strain but still provide strong protection against severe disease. Vaccine effectiveness against hospital attendance is 70-75% in children and 30-40% in adults. However, uptake remains low, with less than a third of people with long-term health conditions having received the vaccine.
Health officials urge all eligible individuals to get vaccinated and take precautions, such as using lateral flow tests. Age UK's Caroline Abrahams emphasised the importance of vaccination for older people, while Professor Antonia Ho of the University of Glasgow encouraged others to consider paying for the shot. The UKHSA reports that flu cases are highest in children but are increasing in older people, with numbers expected to rise further as colder weather drives more indoor mixing.
