New data from the United States indicates a promising downturn in influenza activity for the second consecutive week, though medical professionals are warning the public against complacency.
Signs of a Waning Threat
The latest figures released on Friday 16 January 2026 by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) show a marked decline in key metrics. There has been a substantial fall in flu-related hospital admissions, alongside a notable, though smaller, drop in visits to doctors for flu-like symptoms.
The government agency also reported that the number of states experiencing high levels of flu activity has decreased, falling from 44 to 36. Furthermore, concurrent winter threats from COVID-19 and Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) have not seen significant spikes. This has led CDC officials to characterise the current respiratory virus season as "moderate" in severity.
Why Experts Remain Cautious
Despite the encouraging trend, infectious disease specialists are quick to point out that the season is likely far from finished. Dr. William Schaffner, an expert from Vanderbilt University in Tennessee, highlighted that flu seasons can often see a second peak following the winter holidays.
"We've had other seasons where we've had a peak, it's gone down, but we've nonetheless had a prolonged season," Dr. Schaffner stated. "Most of us are crossing our fingers. But I don't think we can rely on the concept that flu is abating very early this year."
A Concerning Viral Strain
Particular concern has surrounded this season due to the dominance of the influenza A H3N2 virus. This subtype has a historical tendency to cause higher rates of hospitalisation and death, particularly among older adults.
An added worry is that approximately 90% of the H3N2 samples analysed this season belong to a new strain that is different from the version included in this year's flu vaccine formulation. This mismatch can reduce the vaccine's effectiveness against this specific variant.
The CDC's cumulative estimates for the season so far are sobering:
- At least 18 million flu illnesses.
- Around 230,000 hospitalisations.
- An estimated 9,300 deaths, including at least 32 children.
A tragic detail from the paediatric fatalities reveals that, for those children whose vaccination status is known, 90% were not fully vaccinated against influenza.
While the recent dip in activity offers a glimmer of hope, the message from health authorities is clear: vigilance and protective measures, including vaccination where still possible, remain essential as the winter virus season continues.
