Hospitals across the UK are preparing for a potentially severe flu season, driven by a mutated strain of the virus that has become dominant earlier than usual. Health officials warn that the new variant, a descendant of the H3N2 subtype, may be more transmissible and could lead to a wave of hospital admissions, particularly among the elderly.
The mutated virus, first identified in June, has undergone antigenic drift and now has an estimated R value of 1.4, higher than the typical 1.1 to 1.2. This means every 100 infected people are expected to pass the virus to 140 others. The early start to the season, more than a month ahead of normal, has raised concerns that the peak could be larger than usual.
NHS managers are ramping up vaccination efforts for staff and communities, expanding same-day emergency care, and treating more patients in the community to reduce hospital stays. The measures come as resident doctors in England continue a five-day strike over pay, prompting hospitals to implement contingency plans involving consultants and other staff covering extra shifts.
Early data from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) suggests that current vaccines are less effective at preventing infection from the mutated strain but still offer strong protection against severe disease, with effectiveness against hospital admission at 70-75% in children and 30-40% in adults. However, uptake remains low, with less than a third of people with long-term health conditions having received the vaccine.
Scientists note that while H3N2 can cause severe seasons, it is not inevitable. In 2003-04, a similar drifted strain led to 12,000 flu deaths in England and Wales, at the lower end of the typical range. Health officials urge all eligible individuals to get vaccinated and consider additional precautions such as lateral flow testing.
