A new study from Imperial College London has found that the new variant of Covid-19 is significantly more transmissible than previous versions, increasing the Reproduction or R number by between 0.4 and 0.7. The UK's current R number is estimated at 1.1 to 1.3, meaning the epidemic is still growing.
Professor Axel Gandy, part of the research team, described the difference as 'quite extreme', stating: 'This is the most serious change in the virus since the epidemic began.' The study suggests that during England's November lockdown, transmission of the new variant tripled while the older version fell by a third.
Cases have surged rapidly, with a new single-day high on Thursday. Early data indicated faster spread among under-20s, but latest figures show it is now spreading quickly across all age groups. Professor Gandy noted that the November lockdown, which kept schools open, may have skewed earlier data.
Professor Jim Naismith of Oxford University warned that tougher restrictions are likely needed, as the measures previously used would fail to reduce the R number below 1 with the new variant. He said: 'Unless we do something different, the new virus strain is going to continue to spread, leading to more infections, hospitalisations and deaths.'
The variant, designated VOC 202012/01, was first detected in September in south-east England and is now widespread in London, the south-east and east of England. It is not believed to be more deadly, but its increased transmissibility will strain the NHS.
Professor Lawrence Young of Warwick University said early indications suggest vaccines will be effective against the new variant. He added that mutations are natural, but further research is needed to understand why this variant spreads so quickly.
