A leading public health expert has issued a stark warning that the UK is still "a long way from the end of the flu season", with stubbornly high infection rates among the oldest and most vulnerable citizens.
Why the Over-85s Are Bearing the Brunt
Dr Conall Watson, a consultant epidemiologist at the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), highlighted a concerning trend. While levels of flu and Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) have fallen in most age groups since mid-December, cases among those aged 85 and over are "showing no signs of a drop".
He explained that the dominant strain this winter, H3N2, is historically more severe for older adults. A key factor is a lack of early-life exposure. "The thing with H3 is that it wasn't circulating when our current older adults were young people - they didn't get primed against it as children," Dr Watson told The Independent. This means their immune systems are less prepared to fight it off naturally.
He added that while a new sub-strain, known as Subclade K, is spreading rapidly due to lower population immunity, its severity is in line with other years. Crucially, the current flu vaccines are proving effective against it.
Hospital Pressures and Cold Weather Alert
The situation is translating into significant pressure on the NHS. Data shows the number of hospital patients with flu rose in the first week of January 2026, even as overall positive cases declined. This underscores the heightened risk of severe illness and hospitalisation for the over-85s.
Compounding the risk, the UKHSA extended a national cold health alert on Thursday 8 January. All regions remained under an amber alert until 12pm on Monday 12 January, posing an additional threat to older adults who are more vulnerable in harsh weather.
Professor Meghana Pandit, NHS national medical director, confirmed the strain, stating: "The cold weather means we are seeing more vulnerable patients with respiratory problems in A&E and more injuries from slips and falls." This follows a record-breaking December 2025, with around 2.3 million A&E attendances and nearly 1 million 999 calls in England.
Vaccination Call as Season Set to Continue
Dr Watson warned that the return to work and school after the Christmas break, combined with cold weather, is likely to fuel a renewed rise in flu transmission. His central message is a powerful endorsement of vaccination.
"I'm very glad people have gone and got vaccinated this autumn. We're approaching 75 per cent of older adults getting vaccinated and it would be great, obviously, if there were more," he said.
Early UKHSA data indicates this year's jab is working well against the dominant strain. Those eligible for a free NHS flu vaccine include everyone over 65, pregnant women, children from age two, and people with certain long-term health conditions.
With the season far from finished, health officials urge all eligible individuals to take up the offer of protection to safeguard themselves and reduce the burden on overstretched health services.
