The official UK Covid-19 Inquiry has made the explosive claim that approximately 23,000 lives were lost because the first national lockdown was delayed by one week. The findings, published on Thursday, sent shockwaves through Westminster as Baroness Hallett delivered her damning assessment of the government's early pandemic response.
A Costly Delay and Controversial Modelling
In her executive summary, Baroness Hallett stated that if the national lockdown had been imposed on March 16, 2020, instead of seven days later on March 23, the devastating death toll from the first wave could have been halved. This startling conclusion was based on 'modelling' analysis.
However, deep within the 760-page report on page 211, it was revealed this estimate stems from analysis by Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London. The academic, dubbed 'Professor Lockdown', whose earlier predictions influenced Boris Johnson to adopt draconian restrictions, later faced claims from other epidemiologists that his warnings were overblown. Professor Ferguson had previously resigned as a Whitehall scientific adviser after being caught breaking his own social-distancing rules to meet his married lover.
When questioned on Thursday night about whether the inquiry had explored the reliability of this data, a source stated: 'The inquiry has nothing further to add. The citations are clear and the report speaks for itself.'
A Scathing Verdict on Government Failures
Among the most significant conclusions in her £200 million inquiry's report, Lady Hallett found that the devastating lockdowns of 2020 and 2021 might have been avoided altogether if the government had responded to the pandemic sooner. She stated the first lockdown 'might have been shorter or not necessary at all' if basic restrictions like self-isolating and social-distancing had been introduced earlier, even by just a week.
The inquiry chair delivered a blistering summary of the government's performance, concluding that politicians acted 'too little, too late'. She found that by the time a lockdown was seriously considered, 'it was already too late', and it 'only became inevitable because of the acts and omissions of the four governments' across the UK.
Lady Hallett was uncompromising in her criticism, stating that Number 10 and the devolved governments had all 'failed to appreciate the scale of the threat or the urgency of response it demanded'. She described February 2020 as a 'lost month' where crucial preparations could have saved tens of thousands of lives, labelling the overall lack of urgency as 'inexcusable'.
Key Figures Under Scrutiny
The report placed specific blame on several senior figures:
Then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson was criticised for being too slow to act and 'should have appreciated sooner that it was an emergency that required prime ministerial leadership'. The inquiry found he was hampered by receiving false assurances from the health department and that during September and October 2020, he 'repeatedly changed his mind on whether to introduce tougher restrictions and failed to make timely decisions'.
Former Health Secretary Matt Hancock was described as having 'nuclear levels of confidence' by former deputy cabinet secretary Helen McNamara, who said this was a 'problem'. The report found Mr Hancock was 'over-enthusiastic' and kept 'over-promising and under-delivering' to Number 10 about having a grip on the pandemic.
Former health department top mandarin Sir Christopher Wormald was criticised for presiding over 'misleading assurances' about the UK's preparedness and for failing to rein in Mr Hancock.
Broader Consequences and Systemic Failures
The inquiry chair also addressed the damaging impact of rule-breaking by ministers and advisers, stating that the 'very least the public should be entitled to expect is that those making the rules will abide by them'. She noted that several incidents, including Dominic Cummings's trip to Barnard Castle and Matt Hancock's affair, significantly undermined public trust in the government.
Furthermore, the report highlighted significant failures in economic planning, with 'little evidence in each of the four nations of substantive economic modelling and analysis being provided to decision-makers'. This inevitably hampered the ability of leaders to assess and balance relative harms caused by restrictions.
Lady Hallett also criticised the confusing and frequently changing Covid rules, which baffled both the public and police, further eroding trust. She concluded that the repeated lockdowns left 'lasting scars on society and the economy', halted ordinary childhood, and delayed the diagnosis and treatment of other serious health issues across the nation.
