Nearly 23 Million Extra Deaths Forecast by 2030 as Aid Cuts Deepen, Lancet Study Reveals
A groundbreaking study published in the prestigious health journal The Lancet has issued a stark warning: nearly 23 million additional deaths are projected worldwide by 2030 as a direct result of dramatic cuts to overseas aid by major donor nations, including the United States and the United Kingdom. The peer-reviewed research, conducted by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), analyses the impact of aid reductions across 93 countries, highlighting a looming humanitarian catastrophe that could reverse decades of progress in global health.
Devastating Impact of Aid Reductions Across the Globe
The ISGlobal report meticulously examines data from 93 nations, encompassing 38 in Sub-Saharan Africa, 21 in Asia, 12 in Latin America, 12 in the Middle East and North Africa, and 10 in Europe. These regions are home to approximately 6.3 billion people, many of whom rely heavily on international assistance for basic healthcare and survival. The study estimates that aid cuts will lead to 22.6 million extra deaths by 2030, a figure that includes a heartbreaking 5.4 million children under the age of five.
Dr Rajiv J Shah, president of The Rockefeller Foundation and a former administrator of the US Agency for International Development (USAID), emphasised the moral implications of these findings. "These findings give a voice to millions of vulnerable people and show the profound moral cost of the zero-sum approach many political leaders are taking," he stated. "Though it will take years to adequately assess the full toll of aid cuts, this early projection is an urgent call to action."
Historical Success of Aid Programmes and the Consequences of Their Dismantling
The methodology of the study draws on 20 years of development data, revealing the critical role that overseas aid has played in saving lives. Between 2002 and 2021, aid contributions helped achieve remarkable reductions in mortality rates:
- Child mortality decreased by 39 per cent.
- HIV/AIDS deaths fell by 70 per cent.
- Deaths from malaria and nutritional deficiencies were reduced by 56 per cent.
However, this progress is now under severe threat. International aid declined for the first time in six years in 2024, with significant cuts from the US, UK, France, and Germany. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) projects that aid could drop by as much as 18 per cent between 2024 and 2025, exacerbating the crisis.
Specific Cases: USAID Closure and UK Aid Budget Reductions
A particularly devastating blow to global aid efforts came with former US President Donald Trump's closure of USAID in 2025. This move chaotically terminated funding for numerous projects mid-completion, severely impacting climate resilience programmes and healthcare systems in developing countries. Previous research from ISGlobal using the same methodology indicates that the dismantling of USAID alone could result in more than 14 million additional preventable deaths by 2030.
Meanwhile, the UK has reduced its aid budget from 0.5 to 0.3 per cent of Gross National Income starting in 2027. The British development sector is anxiously awaiting details on where these cuts will be implemented, with non-governmental organisations (NGOs) expecting an announcement later in February. Lisa Wise, director of global outcomes at Save the Children, highlighted the immediate consequences: "This analysis confirms what we're already seeing—cuts to aid are not just budget decisions, they are death sentences for children. Aid cuts are already forcing us to close health clinics and nutrition programmes, end protections for girls from violence, and halt climate projects at a time when children need them more than ever."
Voices from the Frontlines: NGOs and Experts Sound the Alarm
The report's findings are corroborated by harrowing accounts from aid workers and organisations on the ground. Magnus Corfixen, humanitarian lead for Oxfam GB, told The Independent: "We are witnessing the impact of aid cuts every single day. Every aspect of people's lives is being affected. Food, clean water and healthcare are not choices or luxuries—they are fundamental human rights and the foundations of a dignified life." He added that aid reductions are stripping communities of essential tools to adapt to the climate crisis, increasing risks from rising temperatures, floods, and droughts.
Davide Rasella, coordinator of the ISGlobal research, underscored the effectiveness of development assistance: "Our analyses show that development assistance is among the most effective global health interventions available. Withdrawing this support now would not only reverse hard-won progress, but would translate directly into millions of preventable adult and child deaths in the coming years."
As the world grapples with evolving global challenges, experts urge that any transition in aid systems must be managed carefully to avoid catastrophic outcomes. The study serves as a powerful reminder that aid cuts are far more than fiscal adjustments—they are decisions with profound human costs that will echo for generations to come.
