Ahead of the 2026 Australian census, a new survey has found that changing the format of the religion question could result in Australia no longer being a majority religious country. The Essential Media poll, commissioned by the Census – Not Religious? Mark No Religion campaign, tested two versions of the question.
Survey Results Show Significant Shift in Responses
When asked using the current census format, where people choose from a list including common religions, “no religion” and “other”, 43% of respondents selected “no religion”. However, when first asked a direct yes/no question — “do you have a religion?” — followed by a text box to specify if “yes” was selected, 54% chose “no”. This translates to about 2 million adults.
The poll surveyed more than 2,000 people with the existing format and another group of more than 2,000 with the alternative. In the first group, 55% selected a religion, 43% “no religion” and 2% chose not to answer. In the second group, 43% said they did have a religion, 54% said they did not, and 4% chose not to answer.
Campaign Group Criticises ABS Question Design
Michael Dove, spokesperson for the campaign group, said the current format used by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) overstates the religiousness of Australia and understates the number of people without any religion. “We trust the ABS to deliver us high-quality data that we can rely on and be confident that the right decisions are being made on the basis of the right data,” he said.
The campaign website lists various surveys that have found the “no religion” cohort to be higher than the census’s 39% recorded in 2021.
Historical Context and Previous Controversies
The religion question has long been a source of contention. In 2001, more than 70,000 Australians declared themselves Jedi Knights, inspired by Star Wars. Pastafarians, members of the Church of the Flying Spaghetti Monster, say they have checked “no religion” to avoid being counted as Christians.
According to the ABS, Christianity has steadily declined over the past 50 years but remained the most common religion at the last census, with 43.9% listing Christianity and 38.9% ticking “no religion”. The number of people from faiths other than Christianity and of no religion has been consistently rising.
Demographic Breakdown and ABS Response
In the second group (yes/no format), religious affiliation was lower among those aged 18-34 (34%) and higher among those with a university education (50%). The poll surveyed adults, while the census includes children, with adults filling out for younger children.
After the 2021 census, the ABS considered changing the question and received feedback that the wording “assumes you have a religion”. However, the bureau decided against changes, citing concerns that data would not be comparable with previous censuses. Dove said the campaign members were involved in two rounds of consultation with the ABS after the 2021 census and that the bureau was responsive but ultimately rejected the change. “I think they have been compromised by the lobbying from the religious groups [who] have the strongest vested interests,” he said. “It needs to be fixed.”
The ABS stated it consulted with religious and secular organisations and found it “not possible to design a question(s) that will meet the range of needs identified”. It has provided extra instructions, updated examples, reordered categories to reflect the most common religious groups from the last census, and changed data processing to record the most granular level of detail.
Outlook for Future Censuses
Dove said the “ship’s sailed” for the 2026 census. “We’ve already got our eyes on 2031,” he said.
