Study Estimates 862 Excess Deaths in UK During June Heatwave
A study by climate scientist Christopher Callahan at Indiana University has claimed that the scorching heatwave in June led to 862 excess deaths in the UK, contributing to an estimated 20,000 deaths across Europe. The research correlates temperature data with mortality rates to infer the impact of the heatwave.
Breakdown of Estimated Deaths Across Europe
According to the analysis, between June 22 and 28, France saw 5,210 deaths, Spain 3,163, and the UK 862. These figures are preliminary, as official estimates for the UK and other European countries have not yet been published.
Scepticism from Academics on the Estimates
The study has faced scepticism. Raquel Nunes from the University of Warwick said it will take months before a final death toll is established. Dann Mitchell, Professor of Climate Science at the University of Bristol, noted: "Twenty-thousand for a single week seems very large. We’d have to look into details of the modelling to be more sure."
Comparison with Official French Figures
Mr Callahan's numbers for France are much higher than official figures. Public Health France initially reported at least 1,000 additional deaths over three days, later revised to more than 2,000 on July 3.
UK Heat-Related Deaths in Previous Years
In summer 2025, the UK recorded 1,504 deaths across five heat spells. The highest death rates were among those aged 85 or over (364 per million) and those aged 75-84 (116 per million), mainly in the South, Central, and East of England, according to the UK Health Security Agency.
Upcoming Heatwave and Health Alerts
Another heatwave is forecast, with temperatures reaching 34°C in the South East by Thursday or Friday. Yellow heat health alerts have been issued by the UK Health Security Agency for the East Midlands, East, South East, South West (including London), and West Midlands from midday on July 10 until 8pm on July 11. Minor impacts on health and social care services are expected, with increased risk to vulnerable people and potential water-related incidents.
