The Met Office has issued a stark warning that 2026 is likely to become the fourth consecutive year of record-breaking global heat, as the planet continues to warm due to greenhouse gas emissions.
A New Global Temperature Milestone
According to the latest forecast from the UK's national weather service, the global average temperature for 2026 is expected to range between 1.34C and 1.58C above pre-industrial levels, with a central estimate of 1.46C. This would make it the fourth year in succession to exceed the 1.4C threshold.
Professor Adam Scaife, who leads the team behind the Met Office’s global forecast, stated: "The last three years are all likely to have exceeded 1.4C and we expect 2026 will be the fourth year in succession to do this. Prior to this surge, the previous global temperature had not exceeded 1.3C."
This projection follows 2024, which was confirmed as the hottest year on record, being the first to temporarily exceed the symbolic 1.5C Paris Agreement target. Dr Nick Dunstone, who led the forecast's production, highlighted the rapid pace of change: "2024 saw the first temporary exceedance of 1.5C and our forecast for 2026 suggests this is possible again."
When Will the UK Warm Up Again?
After a cold and snowy start to the year, many across the UK are wondering when milder conditions will return. The Met Office indicates that a gradual rise in temperatures is expected from late March, with more consistent warmth becoming established in April and May.
Meteorological spring in the UK runs from 1 March to 31 May. During this period, daytime highs typically climb from around 10C in early March to approximately 17C by May. Some forecasts even suggest the possibility of an early hot spell, with temperatures potentially nearing 30C in May.
The shift to British Summer Time, when clocks spring forward on 29 March this year, also heralds longer, sunnier days. However, experts caution that despite winter rain, drought conditions could develop by spring 2026 if rainfall targets are not met.
Looking Ahead to Summer Heat
The long-range outlook suggests a warmer-than-average summer for the UK. Preliminary forecasts indicate temperatures could be up to 1.5C above the 1991–2020 average, with multiple heatwaves likely.
This persistent trend underscores the accelerating impact of climate change. The Met Office's analysis points to a clear pattern of warming, moving the world closer to the critical limits set by international climate agreements.
