Cop30 in Belém concluded more than 24 hours late, amid an Amazonian rainstorm, with the UN climate process barely holding together. The talks faced fire, tropical heat, and political attacks on multilateral environmental governance. Dozens of agreements were passed, but the process nearly collapsed and was rescued by last-ditch talks. Veteran observers said the Paris agreement was on life support.
The outcome fell short of limiting global heating to 1.5C, with a considerable shortfall in adaptation finance for countries worst affected by extreme weather. Rainforest protection barely got a mention, despite the summit being held in the Amazon. The main agreement contained no mention of “fossil fuels”, reflecting the power of gas, oil and coal interests.
Five key threats dogged the summit. First, the US under Donald Trump walked out, attacking climate science and the UN, while staging a summit with Saudi Arabia’s crown prince. This emboldened Riyadh to block any mention of fossil fuels. Second, China, though present, did not want to fill US shoes on finance or lead alone on issues beyond renewable energy manufacturing.
Third, the fracture between extraction and conservation interests was evident. Brazil sent mixed messages: environment secretary Marina Silva pushed for a roadmap away from fossil fuels and deforestation, but the foreign ministry, focused on agribusiness and oil exports, was hesitant. The Amazon rainforest got only one brief mention in the main text.
Fourth, Europe was criticised for lagging on climate finance promises and was divided due to the rise of the far right. The EU delayed its updated NDC and only decided mid-conference to make a fossil fuel transition roadmap a red line. Fifth, the absence of media attention and the geopolitical minefield, including wars and tensions, further complicated progress.
Despite flaws, Cop30 opened new avenues on reducing petrochemical dependency, increased Indigenous and scientist participation, and made strides on a just transition. Wealthy nations opened their wallets a little more. The debate on success or failure continues, but any judgment must account for these threats, which will also need to be avoided at next year’s summit in Turkey.
