The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that a record-breaking hot year is almost certain by 2030, with the global temperature record potentially falling as soon as 2027 due to an expected El Niño event later this year. Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels continue to rise, trapping more heat and driving extreme weather, including the recent heatwave in Europe.
The report, produced by the UK Met Office for the WMO, predicts an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest ever recorded. There is a 75% chance that the average temperature for the five-year period from 2026 to 2030 will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Simon Stiell, the UN climate chief, described the latest European heatwave as a “brutal reminder” of the spiralling impacts of the climate crisis. He urged nations to “kick the fossil fuel addiction much faster,” noting that clean power is now cheaper and faster to produce than fossil fuels.
The Paris agreement goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C is now unlikely to be met, though the weaker 2°C target remains within reach if urgent action is taken. The WMO report found less than a 1% chance that any single year from 2026 to 2030 will exceed 2°C above pre-industrial averages.
El Niño, expected by the end of 2026, will boost global temperatures. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts a 96% chance of El Niño in December 2026 to February 2027, with a 35% chance of a super El Niño. Dr Leon Hermanson, lead author of the WMO report, noted that El Niño increases the likelihood of 2027 becoming the next record-breaking year.
The report also predicts that the next five Arctic winters will be 2.8°C above recent averages, indicating the region is heating up more than three times faster than the global average. Rainfall forecasts suggest northern Europe, the Sahel, Alaska and Siberia will be wetter than usual from May to September, while the Amazon is likely to be drier.
