Myth: Heatwaves Are Just the New Normal We Can Adapt To
The "normal" for humans and other life is fundamentally changing: high temperatures today are likely to seem cool in comparison with those of the future. The warmest 10 years on record have all happened in the past decade. And while an average global increase of 1C or 1.5C doesn't sound like much – and might even seem quite nice on a typical day – that is not how we experience a changing climate. The extremes are often changing faster than the mean. For example, while the global average rose by 1C, heatwaves in southern England have become 3C hotter.
Myth: Scientists Disagree on Human-Caused Climate Change
No. We are certain that global warming is caused by human activities, primarily burning fossil fuels such as gas, oil and coal. Every heatwave and every summer is hotter than it would otherwise have been without those greenhouse gas emissions. That's the simple message from climate scientists and experts around the world.
Myth: Uncertainty Means We Should Doubt Climate Science
The physics and chemistry are very simple: the more we increase greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere, the more we will warm the climate. Those basics have been known since the 1850s, with the first quantification of the effect of increasing carbon dioxide levels being made in the 1890s. In 1938, Guy Callendar, an English steam engineer, was the first person to show that the world had already warmed by about 0.3C, and linked this to the rise in carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere and the amount of coal that had been burned. That was more than 80 years ago. Today, the evidence is overwhelming. There is no doubt among scientists even if other people still refuse to believe it.
Myth: Heatwaves Are Caused by Natural Cycles Like El Niño
We've always had, and we'll always have in the future, times when the weather patterns align to give us extreme weather such as heatwaves and floods. But now the consequences are worse because of our warmer world. El Niño is a natural fluctuation every few years in temperatures in the tropical Pacific, which affects weather patterns around the world but especially in South America, the US, Africa, Australia and parts of Asia. But the current El Niño has just started and won't be peaking until around Christmas of this year – and is forecast to be a very big one.
Myth: Earth's Orbit Is Causing Warming
The Earth's orbit around the sun does affect our climate on very long timescales, over tens of thousands of years. At the time of the invention of the steam engine in the 18th century, this was pushing the Earth on to a slightly cooler path. Yet, what we have seen instead is a very rapid warming, which is not caused by the changes in the Earth's orbit. It is because the Industrial Revolution led to the burning of many more fossil fuels.
Myth: The 1976 Heatwave Was Similar to Today's
There has been a big change in our climate in recent decades. In 1976, northern Europe was an isolated hotspot surrounded by regions experiencing a relatively cool summer. But the peak of the heatwave in June this year was about two degrees hotter than June 1976 in the UK and shattered records over a wide area of Europe. Southern Europe and other regions around the world have shattered records in recent summers too. Back in 1976, the conditions were very unusual. The UK experienced two weeks where temperatures peaked above 32C (89.6F) each day, and that came at the end of a year-long drought. There were severe water shortages and many schools had to shut or close early. About 250 extra people died each day during the heatwave. If comparable weather patterns were replicated in today's hotter world, the heatwave would be more dangerous.
Myth: We Can't Attribute Any Single Event to Climate Change
Climate change doesn't cause the weather patterns that lead to extreme events. But when those weather patterns do occur, like they have always done, climate change makes the consequences more severe, such as hotter heatwaves or heavier rainfall. That amplification can be estimated with attribution studies, which consider how climate change has affected the likelihood or intensity of extreme weather events. There are any number of different approaches to attribution now and they all show that, yes, these heatwaves are becoming hotter as a result of human activities. They may disagree slightly on the precise amount, but they're all consistent in the big picture.
Myth: Temperature Records Are Too Short to Show Trends
Temperature records go back to the early 1800s. Since then, it's very clear that the world has become a lot hotter. The last time the world was as hot as it is now was about 125,000 years ago. We also have much older ice-core records dating back hundreds of thousands of years that show how much carbon dioxide and other gases were in the atmosphere. They reveal that the levels of CO2 today have risen to a high that exceeds anything in the ice cores. That increase is mainly down to our actions of burning fossil fuels and deforestation.
Myth: Heatwaves Are Just Fun Beach Weather
Lots of people will be having fun. But plenty of others are not so fortunate – those who are vulnerable to heat owing to health conditions such as heart disease or diabetes, elderly people, children at school unable to keep cool, patients recovering in hospitals or workers in overheated workplaces. For these groups, a heatwave can be a miserable experience. When temperatures become very high, even fit and able people are at risk. The media should use more balanced images to illustrate extreme heat, to include the very serious risks, as well as maybe the occasional photo of people who are fortunate to be enjoying themselves on the beach.
Myth: Other Countries Cope With Heat, So the UK Should Too
British society and the infrastructure on which it depends were built for the cooler climate of the past, not the climate of the present and certainly not the climate of the future. The UK has homes and offices that were made to keep warm in the winter rather than cool in the summer. The country doesn't have air conditioning in very many places nor shutters on windows like Mediterranean countries. So there is a need for British society to adapt to a shift to hotter summers if the country is not going to suffer the consequences.
Myth: Heat Warnings Are Government Overreach
No. They clearly save lives. In 2003, Europe and the UK had an extraordinary heatwave that is estimated to have killed 40,000 to 70,000 people. That was a real eye-opener that showed Europe was not prepared to deal with these temperatures. Since then, we have much better warning systems. We have learned that we need to look after elderly and vulnerable people. We need to tell people to drink water, to keep the curtains shut during the daytime to try to keep homes cool, to not go out during the heat of the day. This has helped. Temperatures have risen but excess deaths are lower.
Myth: Higher CO2 Will Boost Crop Yields
No, we are at the mercy of the weather and we're able to grow only what the weather lets us. In idealised growing conditions, a fraction of plant species do grow better in a high CO2 environment, but that's not what we are experiencing in the real world. Harvests are suffering because of hot, dry periods and changed rainfall patterns.
Myth: It's Too Late to Act on Climate
It's never too late. The fact that it is human actions that are causing this problem means that we can also solve it. Our decisions matter. We can choose to keep on going as we are – burning lots and lots of fossil fuels, and pumping more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere – and the world and our heatwaves will get hotter and hotter and hotter. Or we can achieve global net zero emissions, which will stabilise the climate and stop things getting even worse. That's a huge challenge, but that is the choice that we have to make for the sake of our children and grandchildren.
