Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer and exporter, is poised to achieve an unprecedented harvest in 2026, according to a new report from the national crop agency Conab. Despite this significant surge in production, analysts predict that coffee prices will remain stubbornly high for consumers, driven by robust global demand and dwindling stockpiles.
Record-Breaking Production Forecast
Conab's report, published on Thursday, projects that Brazil's total coffee output will reach a historic 66.2 million 60-kilogram bags during the 2026 harvest cycle. This figure represents a substantial 17.1 per cent increase compared to the previous year's yield of 56.5 million bags, and it surpasses the country's prior record of 63.1 million bags set in 2020.
Arabica and Robusta Contributions
The anticipated growth is fuelled by strong performances from both major coffee varieties. Arabica coffee production is forecast to surge by over a fifth, reaching 44.1 million bags, largely benefiting from its biennial "on-year" cycle where plants naturally yield more. Concurrently, robusta coffee output is expected to grow by 6.4 per cent to 22.1 million bags.
Conab attributes this positive outlook to several key factors:
- More favourable weather conditions throughout the crop cycle.
- Widespread adoption of advanced agricultural technologies.
- Improved field management practices by growers.
As a result, overall agricultural yields are expected to climb by 12.4 per cent compared to the last harvest, achieving an average of 34.2 bags per hectare.
Regional Production Highlights
The report provides detailed breakdowns for Brazil's leading coffee-producing states. Minas Gerais, the predominant arabica producer, is set to see total coffee production – including some canephora – rise by a remarkable 26 per cent to 32.4 million bags. This increase is credited to better rain distribution and enhanced plant health in the region.
Meanwhile, Espirito Santo, the top canephora producer, is expected to witness a combined output increase of 9 per cent to 19 million bags, again bolstered by beneficial rainfall patterns.
Persistent Price Pressures
Despite the forecast of a record-breaking harvest, Conab emphasises that coffee prices are likely to remain elevated. The agency stated, "For the 2026 cycle, prices are expected to remain high even with expectations of record production in Brazil and with prospects for a good harvest in Vietnam," citing ever-growing consumer demand as the primary driver.
This outlook is supported by data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), which forecasts global coffee consumption at a record 173.9 million bags during the current cycle. Concurrently, ending stocks – which act as a crucial buffer between supply and demand – are projected to drop for a fifth consecutive year to just 20.1 million bags, maintaining tight market conditions.
The combination of strong demand and shrinking reserves suggests that consumers should not expect significant price relief at the checkout, even as Brazilian farms harvest more beans than ever before.
