The 2026 Golden Globes ceremony this Sunday is poised to be a cinematic clash of titans, with major contenders like Paul Thomas Anderson's "One Battle After Another," the box office hit "Marty Supreme," and the dramatic heavyweights "Sinners" and "Hamnet" all vying for top honours. After a precursor season that has seen Anderson's film sweep critics' awards, the question is whether that momentum will carry through to the Hollywood Foreign Press Association's votes.
The Major Film Categories: A Tight Race for Best Drama
This year's Best Film (Drama) category reflects a notably diverse slate, featuring three foreign language films and works from Latino, Black, Middle Eastern, and Asian female directors. While films like "Frankenstein" and "Sentimental Value" are in the mix, the real contest appears to be between two powerhouses: "Sinners" and "Hamnet."
"Sinners" holds the popular vote and is considered by many to be the stronger film, bolstered by recent surprise acting nominations for Miles Caton and Wunmi Mosaku. However, "Hamnet" represents a more traditional style of Globes winner. Despite some backlash labelling it as overt Oscarbait, its offline support remains robust. This race is incredibly close, but the current momentum suggests a narrow victory for "Sinners."
In the comedy sphere, the picture is clearer. "One Battle After Another," with its nine nominations and dominant awards season run, is the overwhelming favourite to win Best Film (Comedy or Musical). Its closest competitor, "Marty Supreme," benefits from box office success but is seen as more of a vehicle for its lead performance.
Lead Acting Awards: Buckley and Chalamet Frontrunners
The race for Best Female Actor in a Drama seems destined for Jessie Buckley for her acclaimed work in "Hamnet." After a Critics Choice award win, the first-time nominee is poised to triumph over competitors like Julia Roberts and Renate Reinsve. The emotional weight of the film's finale, which rests heavily on Buckley's performance, makes her the one to beat.
Best Male Actor in a Drama is less certain. The contest has narrowed to Michael B. Jordan for his commanding dual role in "Sinners" and Wagner Moura for his Cannes-winning turn in "The Secret Agent." It's a choice between a big-budget studio epic and a critically adored foreign-language indie. The critical wave may carry Moura to a narrow victory.
In the comedy acting categories, Rose Byrne is the firm favourite for Best Female Actor for "If I Had Legs I'd Kick You," having won most early awards. For Best Male Actor, Timothée Chalamet is predicted to finally claim his first Globe for "Marty Supreme," edging out Leonardo DiCaprio's celebrated comedic work in "One Battle After Another." The Globes has a history of rewarding young male talent, and Chalamet's performance has generated exceptional praise.
Supporting Roles and Director: Spread the Wealth
The supporting categories promise some of the night's most interesting battles. Best Female Supporting Actor is likely a duel between Amy Madigan's terrifying witch in "Weapons" and Teyana Taylor's revolutionary in "One Battle After Another." Madigan's precursor wins give her a slight edge. For Best Male Supporting Actor, Jacob Elordi's transformative role in "Frankenstein" is tipped to win, capitalising on his Critics Choice victory and the category's penchant for rewarding dramatic physical transformations.
The Best Director award is expected to go to Paul Thomas Anderson for "One Battle After Another," which would mark his first Golden Globe. He faces stiff competition from Ryan Coogler for "Sinners," but Anderson's film, as the season's juggernaut, is the likely victor.
This weekend's ceremony will set the tone for the rest of the awards season, revealing whether the critics' darling can maintain its hold or if the industry's own preferences will steer the Golden Globes in a different direction.
