A sweeping international survey suggests that former US President Donald Trump's "America First" doctrine is paradoxically accelerating the rise of China as a global power. The study, conducted a year after Trump's return to the White House, indicates a world where traditional alliances are fraying and perceptions of American leadership are in sharp decline.
A World Expecting Chinese Ascendancy
The poll, commissioned by the influential European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) and involving nearly 26,000 respondents across 21 countries, found that majorities in almost every territory expect China's global influence to expand over the next ten years. The expectation is most pronounced in South Africa (83%), Brazil (72%), and Turkey (63%), but also holds in the United States (54%), across ten EU states (53%), India (51%), and the United Kingdom (50%).
Furthermore, the survey reveals that most European citizens anticipate China will soon become the world leader in key sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy. Notably, concern about this growing influence is limited. Only in Ukraine and South Korea did majorities view China as a rival or adversary. In contrast, perceptions of China have warmed in nations like South Africa, India, and Brazil compared to two years ago.
Eroding Faith in American Partnership
While many believe the US will remain influential, the poll shows a significant drop in its status as a trusted ally across almost all nations surveyed. India is the sole country where a majority still feels the US is an ally sharing its values and interests. The shift in Europe is particularly stark: only 16% of EU citizens now consider the US an ally, with a striking 20% viewing it as a rival or enemy.
The report's authors—Ivan Krastev, Mark Leonard, and Timothy Garton Ash—argue the findings depict "a world in which US actions were boosting China." They suggest Trump's approach, exemplified by interventions in places like Venezuela, indicates a belief that "it is better for a great power to be feared than to be loved."
Changing Perceptions of Europe and Global Anxiety
The war in Ukraine continues to reshape global alignments. In Russia, 51% now see Europe as an adversary, up from 41% last year, while viewing the US as an adversary has decreased. Ukrainians, however, are more likely to see Europe as an ally (39%) than the US (18%). In China, 61% see the US as a threat, but only 19% think the same of the EU.
Despite this, optimism is in short supply within Europe itself. A growing number of Europeans (46%, up from 42%) do not believe the EU can deal as an equal with the US or China. Many worry about Russian aggression (40%) and a major European war (55%), with over half (52%) supporting increased defence spending.
The authors conclude that European leaders must recognise their citizens grasp the "radical nature of the current geopolitical changes." They warn that Europe risks being "squeezed or simply ignored" and must find "new ways not just to manage in a multipolar world, but to become a pole in that world—or disappear among the others."
