As the war between Israel, the United States and Iran escalates, many Iranians are facing the difficult decision of whether to flee the country. The United Nations refugee agency estimates that 3.2 million people have been displaced since the conflict began, though relatively few have left Iran so far.
Hairdresser Merve Pourkaz, 32, fled her home in Golestan after bombs exploded nearby. She travelled nearly 1,500 kilometres to an alpine border crossing, hoping to reach the Turkish city of Van. “If they let me, I will stay in Van until the war ends,” she told the Associated Press. Others, like 45-year-old Leila Rabetnezhadfard, are returning to Iran from abroad to protect their families. She postponed her wedding in Istanbul and returned to Shiraz.
The UN has warned that continued fighting will likely push more Iranians to flee. Currently, only about 1,300 Iranians are crossing into Turkey daily, and on some days more people return than leave. However, Iran's neighbours and Europe are growing concerned about a potential migration crisis and are making contingency plans.
Turkey has prepared plans to shelter Iranian refugees in buffer zones along the border or in tent cities inside the country, according to Turkish Interior Minister Mustafa Ciftci. The country has also hardened its border with Iran, adding 380 kilometres of concrete walls and observation posts. Aid groups say the most likely escape routes are through the mountainous Kurdish regions along the borders with Iraq and Turkey.
While many Iranians are sheltering in place due to lack of funds or warnings from US President Donald Trump, others are moving from major cities to the countryside near the Caspian Sea. The International Organization for Migration notes that limited movement is often due to people prioritising family safety and logistical constraints. If critical infrastructure is destroyed, larger waves of refugees could cross into neighbouring countries, including Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iraq.
