Europe Cannot Bet on a Post-Trump US Turning Back to Sanity
Donald Trump is a despot, and the United States remains a democracy. These two realities can coexist for a time, but not indefinitely. Currently, there is a deadlock between a president who aspires to monarchical power and a constitution explicitly designed to reject monarchy. This conflict is a battle to the death, where tyranny will either shatter the republic's spirit or be subdued by it.
Global Implications of the US Political Struggle
As the world's paramount power, the outcome of this internal US contest carries epic consequences for nations like the UK, which rely on Washington for security. Trump's recent spiteful denigrations of Keir Starmer and other European leaders, due to their reluctance to join bombing campaigns in Iran, highlight the impossibility of partial alignment with a leader demanding total submission. The US president recognises no authority beyond himself, stating earlier this year that only "my own morality, my own mind" constrain his global actions.
To align with such a figure means setting aside law and submitting to his will—a choice the Republican Party has made domestically and the only option extended to allies abroad. Europe's response has been a confused mix of acquiescence and evasive action. Flattery has been used to coax Trump into renewing NATO commitments and preventing a total betrayal of Ukraine, while defence budgets have been revised to prove the continent can pay its way, hoping to dissuade him from withdrawing major support.
Strategic Rationale and Psychological Denial
There is a strategic logic here: preparing for the nightmare scenario of Europe fending for itself against a belligerent Russia makes it less likely by deterring Moscow and placating Trump. However, fear and denial also play significant roles. European adaptation to the harsh new transatlantic relationship has been hampered by hope that the old friendly dynamic isn't lost forever.
Psychologically, there is a need to believe Trump's havoc is exceptional—a singular event like the COVID pandemic, painful but not a permanent change. The president is mortal; his powers might be constrained if Democrats prevail in upcoming elections. Ceasefires could be brokered, closed waterways reopened, and supply chains rewoven. Yet, the "Trumpdemic" is a more complex syndrome. The US was thoroughly exposed during Trump's first term, culminating in the anti-democratic seizure on January 6, 2021. That severe infection did not cultivate enough immunity to prevent a second term, already proving more virulent in attacks on probity and basic human decency.
Uncertainty in Post-Trump Recovery
There is no guarantee that a successor to Trump will restore old constitutional norms, even if they wish to try. Former allies would welcome a less deranged president, but sanity may not endure beyond a single election cycle. Trust has been eroded. American conservatism is steeped in paranoid, apocalyptic thinking that equates European liberal democracy with civilisational decline, driven by Muslim immigration eroding white, Christian culture. Through this lens, appeals to international institutions are seen as the whining of geopolitical weaklings.
European leaders have long been familiar with this rhetoric, mistakenly believing they could operate in a special channel for historical allies, assuming Trump's extreme language and deference to dictators don't always define US foreign policy. When he threatened to seize Greenland by force—an act that would dissolve NATO—they realised they were dealing with someone who treats partners as prey, conceding only when faced with resistance.
European Pushback and Forced Choices
Unified European pushback, combined with market jitters over a potential transatlantic trade war, forced Trump into a climbdown. This crisis marked Keir Starmer's first public dispute with the White House, as he described Trump's threats as "completely wrong" and vowed not to yield. Yet, Starmer maintained strategic equidistance between Europe and the US, avoiding preference expression.
The Iran crisis has exploded this fiction. Trump's demand for unconditional support in an illegal war forced Starmer to make a choice he previously avoided. By refusing and incurring White House wrath, the prime minister has tilted UK foreign policy toward Europe, aided by economic gravity and geographic proximity to the single market.
Challenges to European Solidarity
The new imperative of solidarity doesn't dissolve old obstacles. Brexit creates legal impediments to reintegration, while the EU faces competing priorities among its 27 member states, varying in size, economy, and history. Tensions exist between national electorate demands—such as spending on non-military items or cheaper gas—and gains from supranational coordination.
Europe has not spoken with one voice on the Iran war. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz remained mute during an Oval Office appearance, while Irish Taoiseach Micheál Martin defended Starmer as a "very earnest, sound person." No democratic leader has mastered Trump-whispering, as the president disrespects softly spoken power. The EU is still learning to project a unified message, while the UK wasted a decade on Brexit sovereignty myths when its interests were better served by bolstering the European chorus.
Conclusion: Resilience Through Unity
Continental solidarity is not an antidote to chaos amid the "Trumpdemic," but it is essential for resilience. Europeans have no vote in America's decision to repudiate tyranny and restore its constitution. They can only save their own democracies, which must be done together, always hoping—but not assuming—that an ally across the Atlantic will one day return.
