Iran has agents in the United Kingdom prepared to cause widespread disruption and fear, according to a former senior counter-terrorism official. Chris Phillips, who previously led the National Counter Terrorism Security Office, stated that Tehran-backed attacks are increasingly likely following the escalation of the security threat level to severe.
Threat Level Raised to Severe
The threat level was elevated to severe on Thursday, the second-highest ranking, indicating that an attack is highly probable. This decision came after the stabbings in Golders Green and a surge in antisemitic incidents. The move reflects growing concerns over potential violence linked to the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran.
Arrests and Fears of Proxy Attacks
British police have arrested 26 individuals in connection with various attacks since the US-Israel war on Iran began on February 28. There are fears that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) may deploy proxy groups, radical organisations, and criminal networks to target locations in European cities. The primary targets are expected to be US, Jewish, and Israeli interests.
Chris Phillips remarked: "Clearly a succession of attacks on the Jewish community have had an impact on the decision makers. What we’ve also seen over the last few months is a rise in intentions as a direct result of the Iranian US conflict. There is absolutely no doubt that the IRGC has many operatives within the United Kingdom to call on to create mayhem."
New Terror Group Claims Responsibility
A newly formed Iran-linked terror group, Harakat Ashab al-Yamin alIslamia, has claimed responsibility for 15 attempted or executed firebombings targeting Jewish properties in Britain and across Europe. The UK has experienced a gradual increase in terror threats, driven by both Islamist and extreme right-wing extremism.
MI5 Assessment
MI5's Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre (JTAC) raised the threat level to severe amid a rise in antisemitic incidents since the October 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, which triggered the Israeli war on Gaza. Over 70,000 people have been killed in Gaza since then, according to the Hamas-run health ministry.
Mr Phillips advised the public to expect more armed police at train stations and large events in the coming weeks, while businesses should enhance security measures. He added: "There is an expectation that we all do a bit to increase security, report suspicious behaviour but most importantly keep on business as usual and not be frightened by terrorists."
Expert Analysis
Terrorism expert Sajjan Gohel, International Security director at the Asia-Pacific Foundation, described JTAC's decision as the re-emergence of a "persistent baseline risk" that never truly disappeared. He stated: "JTAC is effectively signalling that the tempo of threat activity has increased. This could be through credible intelligence, or lone-actor mobilisation, or copycat risk, all of which indicate an attack is once again considered highly likely."
Mr Gohel highlighted the complexity of the current threat environment: "We are no longer dealing with a single ideology focused on mass casualty attacks. The current types of attacks are low-sophistication but still designed to create a sense of fear, uncertainty and insecurity. Global events are acting as accelerants. Conflicts in the Middle East, tensions involving Iran, alongside social media ecosystems compress the time between exposure, radicalisation, and action. This increases the likelihood of low-sophistication but high-impact attacks, particularly from individuals acting alone."
He advised Britons to remain vigilant in public spaces but not to drastically change their daily lives. The threat is more about unpredictability than large, coordinated plots. Looking ahead, the threat picture is likely to remain at severe for sustained periods, posing a challenge for authorities in managing the volume of potential threats.
Rise in Far-Right Referrals
More far-right extremists were referred to the government’s anti-terrorism programme Prevent last year than those suspected of Islamist extremism. In total, 8,778 referrals were made due to suspicions of extremist radicalisation in the year to March 2025, a 27% increase from the previous year and the highest number since records began a decade ago.
Security minister Dan Jarvis urged the public to be "alert and vigilant, but not alarmed" by the decision to raise the threat level. Meanwhile, Essa Suleiman, 45, appeared in court on Friday charged with attempted murder after two Jewish men were stabbed in Golders Green. Both men suffered serious injuries, and the Metropolitan Police declared it a terrorist incident. Suleiman was remanded to appear at the Old Bailey at a later date.
