Russia could earn more than $10bn (£7.8bn) in additional oil and gas revenues to help fuel its war on Ukraine, experts have warned, thanks to a decision by US President Donald Trump. Mr Trump lifted restrictions on countries buying Russian crude stranded at sea after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route through which a fifth of the world's oil passes, sent prices soaring.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claimed the 30-day waiver would 'not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government', but shipping data and surging prices suggest otherwise. Russia is set to earn up to two-thirds more this month than in February, potentially wiping out months of losses in weeks. Experts estimate the windfall could be as high as $11.3bn (£8.6bn).
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed concern, saying the decision 'did nothing for peace'. Benjamin Hilgenstock of the Kyiv School of Economics called it a 'serious bailout' that would 'help significantly' the Russian war effort. Russia's Urals crude has risen over 50 per cent since the crisis began, to roughly $80-85 (£60-£64) per barrel, while seaborne imports of Russian crude have jumped from 3.18 million barrels a day in February to 4.56 million in March.
Analysts previously told The Independent that Mr Trump's war on Iran would benefit Russia heavily, and that appears to be coming true. Sanctions campaigner Bill Browder called it a 'terrible decision that will enrich Vladimir Putin and prolong the war in Ukraine'. The windfall comes after a bruising start to the year for Russian finances, with energy revenues falling almost 50 per cent year on year in the first two months of 2026, pushing the budget deficit to roughly 90 per cent of the projected annual figure.
Isaac Levi of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air said the surge in oil prices is 'very much helping the Kremlin to stabilise and potentially recover those losses'. Meanwhile, India, Russia's largest seaborne crude buyer, is now paying a premium for Urals, with the discount to Brent reversing from $10 below to approximately $5 above. Indian imports have risen from just over one million barrels a day in February to 1.6 million, with likely further increases.
