Trump's Oil Waiver Set to Inject Billions into Russia's War Effort
Russia is poised to earn up to two-thirds more in monthly oil and gas revenue compared to February, potentially erasing months of financial losses in just weeks, according to energy experts. This dramatic reversal comes after US President Donald Trump lifted restrictions on countries purchasing Russian crude stranded at sea, a move critics warn will significantly bolster Moscow's military capabilities in Ukraine.
Policy Shift Sparks Global Energy Market Turmoil
The US treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, defended the 30-day waiver as a "tailored, short-term" measure that would not provide substantial financial benefit to Russia. He argued it addresses instability caused by Iran, following attacks on shipping in the Gulf that closed the Strait of Hormuz and sent oil prices soaring. However, shipping data and market analysts paint a different picture, suggesting Moscow could gain an additional 10 billion euros ($11bn) this month alone.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed grave concerns about the decision, stating it "did nothing for peace." Benjamin Hilgenstock, head of macroeconomic research at the Kyiv School of Economics, described it as a "serious bailout" for Moscow that would "help significantly" Russia's war effort despite increasing economic pressure.
Price Surge and Increased Exports Create Perfect Storm
Russia's Urals crude has surged over 50% since the crisis began, now trading at roughly $80-85 per barrel. Simultaneously, seaborne imports of Russian crude have jumped from 3.18 million barrels per day in February to 4.56 million barrels per day in March, according to vessel-tracking data from Kpler. This combination of higher prices and increased volume is creating a windfall for the Kremlin.
"The message to the Kremlin is 'wait long enough and the West will blink'," said Alexander Kirk, a sanctions campaigner at human rights group Urgewald. "Russia has already made billions from fossil fuel exports since the strikes on Iran began. Allowing more Russian oil onto the market now only helps refill the Kremlin's war chest."
Reversing Earlier Losses and Expanding Markets
This development follows a difficult start to 2026 for Russian finances, with energy revenues falling almost 50% year-on-year in the first two months, pushing Russia's budget deficit to roughly 90% of projections. "The current surge in oil prices is very much helping the Kremlin to stabilise and potentially recover those losses," explained Isaac Levi, Europe-Russia policy and energy analysis team lead at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.
Previously, Russia sold its sanctioned crude at a discount to Brent crude, with India receiving Urals at roughly $10 below Brent as recently as February. That discount has now reversed, with Urals delivered to India trading at approximately $5 above Brent - a $15 per barrel swing across all Russia's existing sales.
India's Russian crude imports have increased to 1.6 million barrels per day from just over 1 million in February, with further rises expected. While China already receives around 800,000 barrels daily via pipeline, Indian refiners are now outbidding Chinese buyers for additional seaborne supplies.
New Buyers Emerge as Global Shortages Bite
The waiver covers approximately 100 million barrels of stranded Russian crude, according to Russian presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev, who suggested "further easing of restrictions on Russian energy supplies appears increasingly inevitable." New buyers are already emerging beyond Russia's traditional customer base of China, India and Turkey, which currently account for 93% of Russian crude sales.
Thailand's deputy prime minister has expressed interest in purchasing Russian crude, while countries like Bangladesh and Pakistan, suffering fuel shortages from the Hormuz disruption, could now enter the market without fear of US sanctions. Taken together, the price and volume increases could generate between 5 billion and 10 billion euros ($5.7bn to $11bn) in additional fossil fuel export revenues this month if Hormuz remains closed.
Bill Browder, a prominent sanctions campaigner, condemned the decision as "terrible" and warned it would "enrich Vladimir Putin and prolong the war in Ukraine." As Brent prices fluctuate wildly - reaching $119 on Monday before falling - and Iran threatens prices as high as $200 per barrel, the global energy market faces continued uncertainty while Russia stands to gain substantially from the turmoil.
