Conservative warnings that Zohran Mamdani's victory in the New York City mayoral election would trigger a mass exodus of the wealthy appear unfounded, according to property data and academic experts. The New York Post had repeatedly claimed that millionaires would flee to lower-tax states such as Florida and Texas if the democratic socialist candidate implemented his proposed tax rises on high earners.
However, a month after Mamdani's historic win, there is no sign of a rush for the exits. According to Fortune magazine, signed contracts on Manhattan homes costing more than $4m rose in November compared with October, with the most expensive properties outperforming the wider market. Meanwhile, luxury market inventory fell by 16% in October year-on-year, suggesting more people are committing to staying in the city.
Cristobal Young, associate professor of sociology at Cornell University and author of The Myth of Millionaire Tax Flight, said migration rates among high-income individuals are very low. 'Rich people are not the folks who are pulling up camp and moving to a different part of the country,' he said. He noted that the wealthy are more likely to be married and have children, factors that reduce the likelihood of moving.
Quentin Parrinello, policy director at the EU Tax Observatory, said studies in Scandinavia and France show that 'mobility of high-net-worth individuals does exist, but it is extremely limited' due to cultural, family and economic ties. 'The complexities of moving away from these opportunities ultimately appear bigger than what you will pay in tax – particularly when the proposed tax rise is somewhat modest,' he added.
Young and others have analysed similar tax increases in New Jersey, California, Connecticut and Massachusetts, finding little evidence of mass exodus. He acknowledged that a handful of people might leave, but emphasised that the vast majority will stay and contribute more revenue at the higher rate.
