The UK property market has plunged into a state of paralysis, with sales activity hitting its lowest level since records began as buyers and sellers adopt a 'wait-and-see' approach ahead of the government's upcoming budget announcement.
According to the latest Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) residential market survey, new buyer enquiries have collapsed to a net balance of -39% in October, marking the most negative reading since the pandemic lockdown of January 2021.
Market Grinds to a Halt
The data reveals a market in deep freeze, with agreed sales plummeting to a net balance of -25% and near-term sales expectations dropping to their most pessimistic level in 14 years. This represents the worst sales outlook since the global financial crisis of 2008-2009.
Simon Rubinsohn, RICS chief economist, stated: 'The latest feedback from RICS members continues to point to a sluggish housing market, with limited transactions and a subdued price picture appearing increasingly likely for 2024.'
Budget Uncertainty Fuels Market Paralysis
Industry experts point to the upcoming Autumn Statement as a critical factor in the market's stagnation. Property professionals across the UK report that both buyers and sellers are delaying decisions until they understand the government's fiscal plans and any potential changes to property taxation or support schemes.
The survey indicates that high mortgage costs and economic uncertainty continue to weigh heavily on market sentiment, with many potential movers choosing to remain in their current properties rather than commit to new purchases at current interest rates.
Regional Variations Emerge
While the national picture appears bleak, regional variations persist. Surveyors in Scotland and Northern Ireland reported slightly more resilient price trends, though the overall momentum remains negative across most parts of the UK.
Looking ahead, RICS members suggest the market could remain challenging throughout the first quarter of 2024, with any significant recovery dependent on interest rate stability and improved economic confidence.
The property market's current stagnation represents one of the most significant slowdowns in recent history, underscoring how fiscal policy uncertainty and borrowing costs are reshaping the UK housing landscape.
