For James Martin and Liz Upcroft, both 28, buying a home is a race against a market moving faster than their savings. Despite making significant sacrifices—cutting weekly costs by $600 and moving in with family—their dream is being eclipsed by Sydney's runaway property prices.
The Relentless Treadmill for First-Time Buyers
The couple had aimed to purchase a property by the end of the year, but their plans have been upended. Initially priced out of their preferred inner-east suburbs of Surry Hills and Darlinghurst, they turned their attention west to Parramatta. However, with analysts predicting further price surges, even that fallback option is at risk. "It feels a little bit like a treadmill," Martin confessed. "We'll have an idea of how much we need to save for a deposit, and then we'll check again six months later, and the needle's moved."
Their struggle highlights a national failure. The Federal Government's Housing Accord pledged 1.2 million new homes by 2029, but a damning new forecast reveals the nation is on track to miss that target by a staggering 426,000 dwellings. This structural deficit, detailed in Propertybuyer's Australian Property Market Outlook 2026-2030, is set to intensify pressure on prices, rents, and affordability for years to come.
A National Shortfall with Dire Consequences
Propertybuyer chief executive Rich Harvey warned the issue is fundamental. "Housing scarcity is now baked into the system," he stated. "Migration and household formation continue to run ahead of new construction while capacity constraints are holding back development." He stressed that policy announcements alone are insufficient, citing a lack of labour, planning bottlenecks, and construction costs still 40 per cent above pre-2020 levels.
The shortfall is not evenly spread. New South Wales accounts for almost half of the national deficit, while Victoria and Queensland also face significant gaps. Only the Australian Capital Territory is on track to meet its target. AMP chief economist Shane Oliver noted affordability has deteriorated to "record levels," measured by the ratio of home prices to incomes.
This undersupply is forecast to fuel price growth across all capital cities through 2030, with home values potentially rising up to 30 per cent. Projections suggest Sydney's median house price could reach $2.22 million, Melbourne $1.4 million, and Brisbane $1.45 million by the decade's end.
Personal Sacrifices and Interstate Moves
The crisis is forcing drastic life changes. Brisbane couple Raphael and Kate Tripet left Sydney two years ago after concluding a family-sized home was unattainable. "We couldn't afford the Sydney market unless we were willing to move far away or make major compromises," Raphael explained. His advice to other young buyers was blunt: avoid new builds and scrutinise discretionary spending on dining and takeaway coffees.
While latest ABS data showed a 15.2 per cent monthly jump in dwelling approvals in November 2025, driven by a 34 per cent spike in apartments, the long-term outlook remains grim. Master Builders chief economist Shane Garrett pointed out that in the Housing Accord's first year, Australia fell 60,000 homes behind schedule.
Renters are also in the firing line, with vacancy rates in Perth, Brisbane, and Adelaide critically low and weekly rents soaring. Harvey concluded with a sobering warning: "Unless policymakers address these bottlenecks, the market will rely on price and rent signals to ration demand, which will hurt younger Australians the most."
