The government is facing urgent warnings from its energy advisers over a looming gas supply crisis that could leave British homes and businesses without heating during the coldest winter days towards the end of this decade.
Emerging Risk to Energy Security
The National Energy System Operator (Neso), established last year, has identified what it describes as an "emerging risk to gas supply security" in its first comprehensive assessment. The report was quietly published hours after the government's budget statement, which indicated that the decline of UK domestic oil and gas production is likely to accelerate.
While Britain's gas supplies should be sufficient to meet demand during normal weather conditions, the assessment reveals potential shortfalls during prolonged periods of severely cold weather. The situation is particularly concerning given that domestic gas production fell to 50-year lows last year and is expected to decline further towards 2030.
Infrastructure Vulnerabilities and Import Dependence
The report highlights that if just one piece of Britain's ageing gas infrastructure experiences an outage, the country's gas supplies would fall short of demand across all scenarios modelled through to 2030. Although such an event is considered "unlikely," it would trigger emergency measures including shutting off gas supplies to factories and power plants.
In extreme scenarios, households could also be affected, and returning the country to normal supply could take weeks or even months according to separate government reports. Britain's energy security currently depends heavily on imports, with about one-third of UK gas coming from North Sea fields, while the remainder arrives via pipelines from Norway and continental Europe, plus shipments of liquified natural gas (LNG) from Qatar and the US.
Call for Collaborative Solutions
Deborah Petterson, Neso's resilience director, emphasised that "collaboration will be essential to ensuring reliable supplies for consumers." The assessment found that even in optimistic scenarios where all gas supply and network infrastructure function properly, the risk of shortfall remains evident, particularly if decarbonisation progress is slower than anticipated and the UK maintains higher gas dependency.
Glenn Bryn-Jacobsen, a director at National Gas which operates Britain's gas network, stated: "Gas remains a critical component of Britain's energy security" for keeping homes warm, powering industry, and supporting electricity generation during peak demand periods with low renewable output. He stressed the importance of considering both gas supply landscape and necessary network infrastructure investments when developing solutions.
