New data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has revealed a dramatic and historic shift in the UK's population landscape, with Wales recording its first population decrease since the mid-19th century.
The figures, covering the period from mid-2021 to mid-2022, show Wales's population fell by an estimated 1,800 people. This marks the first time the principality has seen a decline since the Great Famine of the 1850s, a momentous change attributed to a perfect storm of factors.
The Pandemic's Lasting Impact
The data points squarely to the lingering effects of the Covid-19 pandemic as a primary driver. The ONS cited a combination of "negative natural change"—meaning more deaths than births—and a shift in international migration patterns post-Brexit as key reasons for the Welsh decline.
This trend stands in stark contrast to the overall picture for England and Wales, which saw a collective increase of 578,000 people, bringing the total population to an estimated 60.2 million by mid-2022.
The West Midlands Boom
While Wales contracted, the West Midlands emerged as England's unexpected growth champion. Excluding London, it was the fastest-growing region, with its population swelling by 0.9%.
This growth was largely fuelled by international migration, particularly an influx of non-EU nationals arriving for work and study, suggesting the region is becoming an increasingly attractive destination for new arrivals.
A Capital City Pull
London, however, retained its top spot. The capital experienced the highest population growth rate of any region in England and Wales at 1.1%. This growth was almost entirely due to international migration, solidifying its status as a global magnet for people.
The ONS report underscores a tale of two Britains: one where major urban centres like London and the West Midlands continue to expand rapidly, and another where nations like Wales are grappling with new demographic challenges that could have significant long-term implications for public services and local economies.
