Independent demographic studies suggest Cuba is experiencing the world's fastest population decline, with one in four citizens leaving the country in the past four years. The population is estimated to have fallen below 8 million, a 25% drop, as disillusionment with the revolution and economic hardship drive a mass exodus.
The root causes include decades of US sanctions, economic crisis, crumbling public services, political repression, and widespread disillusionment with the revolution, which experts describe as a 'polycrisis'. The Trump administration has stepped up its offensive across Latin America, reinforcing US military deployment in the Caribbean and increasing threats against Cuba.
Between 2022 and 2023 alone, the population fell by 18% due to migration. Cuba has recorded more deaths than births for five consecutive years, with fertility rates below replacement levels since 1978. One in four Cubans is now over 60, worsening economic and social prospects.
Most emigrants are aged 15 to 59; 57% are women and 77% are of reproductive age. They finance their journeys through personal resources and family networks, navigating routes through Latin America, Europe, Africa and Asia.
Hatri Echazabal Orta, 29, left Havana during the pandemic, travelling via Russia, Serbia, Bosnia, Croatia, Slovenia, Italy and France before reaching Spain. She says daily life in Cuba is a struggle for basic goods, with failing infrastructure and unviable wages. For young Cubans, emigration is an 'almost universal aspiration'.
Demographer Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos Espiñeira describes a 'Malthusianism of poverty', with families forgoing children to avoid starvation. He considers the population decline irreversible, as 'push factors' of economic and political desperation overwhelm any pull to stay, leading to a 'point of implosion'.
