The U.S. national debt has surpassed the size of the economy for the first time since the aftermath of the Second World War, according to new data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. As of March 31, the total debt held by the American public stood at $31.27 trillion, while nominal GDP was estimated at $31.22 trillion, placing the debt-to-GDP ratio at 100.2 percent. This marks a significant milestone, approaching the historic 106 percent recorded in 1946 during post-war demobilization.
Rapid increase in debt levels
The debt was at 99.5 percent of GDP at the end of the 2025 fiscal year in September, illustrating how quickly it has climbed. In February, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released a 10-year budget and economic forecast warning that if current trends persist, the U.S. will break the post-war record by 2030, with public-held debt projected to hit 108 percent. The CBO also cautioned that within a decade, debt held by the public as a share of GDP could reach 120 percent, threatening to slow economic growth and deter private investment.
Government spending and deficits
The U.S. government is currently spending $1.33 for every dollar collected in revenue, facing a budget deficit projected at $1.9 trillion this year, according to The Wall Street Journal. Despite these figures, President Donald Trump has maintained an optimistic outlook, responding to the Commerce Department's mixed first-quarter economic report by stating, "More people are working right now than at any time in the history of our country. We're doing great." He emphasized investment and the return of auto plants to the country.
Public concern and expert warnings
However, public concern over inflation and the affordability crisis persists, reflected in Trump's sliding approval ratings. A Reuters/Ipsos poll earlier this week showed only 34 percent approval, amid rising gas prices linked to the Iran war. Maya MacGuineas, president of the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, commented that surpassing the historic record was "only a matter of time." She noted, "This time, the borrowing isn't borne from a seismic global conflict, but rather a total bipartisan abdication of making hard choices." She warned that rising debt compromises affordability by slowing income growth, pushing up interest rates, and increasing inflationary pressures. "Debt squeezes our budgets with massive interest costs. It exposes us needlessly to challenges from geopolitical rivals. And without corrective action, rising debt could spark a devastating fiscal crisis." MacGuineas urged lawmakers to "stop the bleeding" and put the country on a more sustainable fiscal path.
