As the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran escalates, travellers are increasingly feeling the impact. Airlines are cutting flights and imposing fuel surcharges. EU energy commissioner Dan Jorgensen warned that many people will face holiday disruptions due to high fuel prices and limited availability. “Unfortunately, it’s very likely that many people’s holidays will be affected, either because of flight cancellations or very, very expensive tickets,” he told Sky News. “Even if we do everything we can, if the jet fuel is not there, then it’s not there.”
Fuel Shortage: How Bad Is It?
In some regions, especially Asia, flight cuts are severe and surcharges hefty. However, British passengers have seen limited impact so far. Airlines UK, representing major carriers, states: “Airlines continue to operate normally and are not experiencing issues with jet fuel supply.” A government spokesperson added: “UK airlines are clear that they are not currently seeing a shortage of jet fuel. Aviation fuel is typically bought in advance, and airports and their suppliers keep stocks of bunkered fuel to support resilience. We are continuing to work with fuel suppliers, airlines, and international counterparts to keep flights operating, as well as planning for a range of contingencies.”
Ryanair, Europe’s biggest budget airline, commented: “We don’t expect any near-term fuel shortages, but the situation is fluid. At present our fuel suppliers can guarantee supply to mid-end May. If the Iran war finishes soon then supply will not be disrupted. If the closure of the Hormuz Straits continues into May or June then we cannot rule out risks to fuel supplies at some airports in Europe.”
The small Channel Islands airline Aurigny has grounded some flights linking Britain with Guernsey and applied a £2 surcharge on new bookings. Skybus, the Isles of Scilly carrier, has axed its link between London Gatwick and Newquay in Cornwall. Interestingly, while fuel becomes scarce, European airlines like British Airways and Virgin Atlantic are increasing flights to Asia to capitalise on the reduced schedules of Gulf carriers and passengers’ reluctance to transit through hubs like Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha, which are on the Foreign Office no-go list.
What Happens If My Flight Is Cancelled?
Under air passengers’ rights rules, travellers on flights departing from the UK or EU, or on British or European airlines from anywhere in the world, have strong protections. They are entitled to be rebooked to their destination as close to the original schedule as possible, on any airline with available seats, and to receive meals and accommodation if delayed significantly. If informed of a cancellation less than two weeks before departure and the airline cannot offer an alternative close to the original timing, compensation of £220 to £520 in cash is typically due. However, carriers may argue that the fuel situation constitutes “extraordinary circumstances” and refuse payout.
The most precarious situation is for travellers returning to the UK from beyond Europe on a non-British or EU airline, as air passengers’ rights rules do not apply. For example, Qatar Airways from Asia, Africa, or Australia has no obligation to provide an alternative flight or hotel. Notably, some passengers booking British Airways via Doha may be unaware that Qatar Airways operates the flight, which means the carrier does not have to comply with UK rules.
Can Travel Insurance Cover Cancellations?
Insuring against flight cancellations that lead to lost prepaid hotels or car rental is challenging. Most policies exclude payouts for losses due to “declared or undeclared war or hostilities.” Since the fuel shortage and high prices result from the US-Israeli assault on Iran and subsequent retaliation, claims are likely to be rejected. Moreover, as airlines have begun cancelling flights in large numbers, insurers may view such disruptions as a “known risk” and refuse cover. However, if airlines cut back, the Civil Aviation Authority expects passengers to be rebooked on another flight to reach their destination the same day.
Will We Face Surcharges?
Major UK airlines—British Airways, easyJet, Jet2, Ryanair, and Virgin Atlantic—have hedged fuel prices, locking in lower costs. None intends to surcharge existing passengers. However, for package holidays, the Package Travel Regulations allow travel firms to demand extra money if fuel costs rise. There is no upper limit, but if the surcharge is 8% or more, you can cancel and get a refund. Many surcharges are exactly 8%, adding £80 to a £1,000 holiday.
Will Flights Cost More Later This Year?
Yes. Displaced demand from the effective closure of Gulf destinations like Abu Dhabi, Doha, and Dubai is pushing up prices for European locations. Additionally, airlines are imposing fuel surcharges on new bookings, ranging from £2 on Aurigny to £260 on Japan Airlines. As hedging arrangements unwind, future supplies will be more expensive, raising fares. easyJet CEO Kenton Jarvis told The Independent: “The industry has no choice. It’s a low-margin, highly competitive sector. We make about £7 per seat. If fuel goes up £10, you have to respond.” An exception could be cheap deals to the Gulf and beyond as carriers like Emirates, Etihad, and Qatar Airways try to fill planes and boost confidence.
Should I Book Now for Summer or Wait?
Booking now offers strong consumer protection. For example, a one-way flight from Luton to Mykonos in July for £106 or an easyJet flight from Gatwick to Rennes in May for £36 are reasonable. If the airline cancels, air passenger rights rules ensure an alternative flight at no extra cost. Therefore, committing to flights soon is advisable.
This article has been updated with the latest information.
