France is bracing for another political crisis after Prime Minister François Bayrou appeared almost certain to lose a confidence vote scheduled for early September. In an interview with L'Express, the 74-year-old centrist vowed to “fight like a dog” to remain in power, but opposition parties on both the far right and the left have signalled they will back his removal after less than nine months in office.
Bayrou’s decision to call the vote, with President Emmanuel Macron convening a special parliamentary session on 8 September, has reignited fears of instability less than a year after the previous government under Michel Barnier was toppled over budget disagreements. The Paris stock market fell sharply on Tuesday, with bank shares sliding and government borrowing costs rising, as investors reacted to the prospect of another collapse.
The planned vote follows deep divisions over Bayrou’s austerity budget, which aims to cut €44bn (£38bn) from public finances. Measures include scrapping two public holidays and freezing welfare spending and tax brackets. The plan has been widely criticised as unfair, with polls suggesting voters across the political spectrum believe it protects the wealthiest. Bayrou has made a late appeal to the left, saying he is prepared to demand a “specific effort” from high-wealth individuals.
At a meeting with the CFDT trade union on Tuesday, Bayrou urged political parties to consider the consequences of their vote, saying they had 13 days to decide whether they were “on the side of chaos or responsibility”. He framed the budget as a national emergency, asking: “Is there or is there not a national emergency to rebalance the accounts, to escape excessive debt by choosing to reduce our deficits and produce more?”
If Bayrou is ousted, Macron faces a significant political upheaval at a time when he seeks to play a role on Ukraine and Palestinian statehood. The president could appoint a new prime minister, but analysts close to Marine Le Pen suggested any successor would risk a similar no-confidence vote. Le Pen’s National Rally wants Macron to dissolve parliament and call a snap election, something Macron rejected over the summer, though Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin said on Tuesday that an election “cannot be ruled out”.
Political division remains entrenched following last June’s inconclusive election, which left parliament split among three blocs with no absolute majority. The left alliance, which won the most seats, has demanded a prime minister from its ranks, with Green leader Marine Tondelier insisting Macron must appoint one. Meanwhile, Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau, whose right-wing Les Républicains party has propped up Bayrou, said it would be irresponsible and “against France’s interests” to bring the government down.
