Two million airline seats have been removed from May schedules globally as carriers adjust operations in response to soaring jet fuel prices linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict. Data from aviation analytics firm Cirium shows approximately 13,000 fewer flights will operate this month, representing less than 2% of global capacity. While London Heathrow has seen only a net loss of 111 flights, industry fears are mounting over potential summer cancellations due to long-term fuel supply disruptions.
Istanbul and Munich airports have recorded the largest flight reductions, with Turkish Airlines and Lufthansa implementing significant cuts. Lufthansa's CityLine subsidiary has cancelled 20,000 short-haul flights. The price of jet fuel has more than doubled since the US-Israel attack on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, according to the source.
Most major UK short-haul airlines, including EasyJet and Wizz Air, have hedged fuel costs and pledged to operate full summer schedules despite pressure on unhedged portions. The industry reports no current shortages, citing six weeks of supply visibility. However, international agencies warn that Europe could face jet fuel shortages if the Middle East war continues to disrupt supplies.
Goldman Sachs analysts noted on Monday that the UK is particularly vulnerable as Europe's largest net jet fuel importer, with low inventories, high import reliance, and reduced domestic refining capacity. They warned that UK stocks could fall to 'critically low levels, increasing the likelihood of rationing measures.'
In response, the UK government announced over the weekend that it would relax 'use-it-or-lose-it' slot rules, allowing airlines to cancel flights with fewer seats sold without losing operating rights for the next season. Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander stated there were no 'immediate supply issues' but emphasised preparing to 'give families long-term certainty and avoid unnecessary disruption at the departure gate this summer.' UK refineries have been asked to maximise jet fuel production under contingency plans, though ministers have resisted industry requests for tax cuts or reduced environmental and noise regulations.
