From Diamond Riches to Economic Ruin
In a village just outside Botswana's capital, Keorapetse Koko sits in her sparsely furnished home, grappling with a harsh new reality. The career she built over 17 years cutting and polishing diamonds—and the entire national economy constructed around these precious stones—has collapsed with startling speed.
Diamonds discovered in 1967, just one year after independence, transformed Botswana from one of the world's poorest nations into an African success story. The landlocked country became the world's top diamond producer by value and second-largest by volume after Russia, weaving diamonds into its very national identity.
The Rise of Synthetic Diamonds
The global diamond trade is undergoing a seismic shift. Lab-grown diamonds mass-produced mainly in China and India now sell for up to 80% less than natural stones. These synthetic gems accounted for just 1% of global sales in 2015 but have surged to nearly 20% today.
Glitzy social media videos have fueled their appeal, marketing them as cheaper, conflict-free and eco-friendly alternatives to natural diamonds formed over billions of years. Hollywood stars including Billie Eilish and Pamela Anderson, along with Gen Z influencers, have boosted synthetic diamonds' allure.
Ian Furman, founder of Naturally Diamonds in neighbouring South Africa, revealed the scale of the change: "For every 100 diamonds his company sells, around 95 are synthetic when just five or six years ago it was overwhelmingly natural diamonds."
Economic Impact and Regional Response
The consequences for Botswana are severe. Diamond exports, representing roughly 80% of Botswana's foreign earnings and a third of government revenue, have tumbled dramatically.
Debswana, the largest local diamond producer and a joint venture between the government and mining giant De Beers, saw revenues halve last year. The national statistics agency reported a 43% drop in diamond output in the second quarter—the steepest fall in the country's modern mining history.
The World Bank expects Botswana's economy to shrink 3% this year, marking the second consecutive contraction. Joseph Tsimako, president of the Botswana Mine Workers Union, summarised the crisis: "Diamonds built our country. Now, as the world changes, we must find a way to make sure they don't destroy the lives of the people who helped build it."
New US tariffs under the Trump administration have worsened the downturn, with America imposing a 15% tariff on diamonds mined, cut and polished in Botswana.
Across southern Africa, the pain is spreading. In response, Botswana, Angola, Namibia, South Africa and Congo agreed in June to pool 1% of annual diamond revenues into a global marketing push led by the Natural Diamond Council to promote natural stones.
Botswana's government created a sovereign wealth fund in September focused on investment and diversification beyond mining, though details remain scarce. The country's elephant-heavy tourism industry and other mining options including gold, silver and uranium have suddenly become more crucial than ever.
For Keorapetse Koko, the laid-off diamond worker, these policy shifts may have come too late. "I have debts and I don't know how I am going to pay them," said the mother of two, who earned about $300 monthly in a country where the average salary is $500. "I was the breadwinner in a big family. Now I don't even know how to feed my own."
In a poignant final note, she revealed she never owned a diamond herself—even the smallest stone remained a luxury far beyond her means.
