A mysterious gambler netted a profit exceeding $400,000 by betting on the downfall of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in the hours immediately preceding the US military operation that captured him, raising significant questions about potential insider knowledge.
The Suspicious Wager Timeline
According to data from the cryptocurrency-based prediction platform Polymarket, the unidentified bettor created an account in December 2025. Their first move was on 27 December, placing a $96 wager on contracts predicting a US invasion of Venezuela by 31 January 2026.
Over the following week, the trader consistently increased their stake, focusing on bets that Maduro would not remain in power by the month's deadline. The final and most telling bet was placed at approximately 9:58 pm on Friday, 2 January 2026. Mere hours later, President Donald Trump authorised the military strike on Caracas that resulted in Maduro's capture.
Market Reaction and Massive Profit
Prior to the attack, the market sentiment on Maduro's survival was overwhelmingly sceptical of a change. Contracts predicting his removal from power were priced at just 8 cents, implying users saw only an 8% probability of it occurring by January's end.
These prices skyrocketed once news of the successful US operation broke. In total, the anonymous trader wagered $34,000 across their bets. Crucially, more than half of this total was staked on the very night before the attack. The eventual payout was a staggering $410,000 in profit—a return of twelve times the original investment.
Calls for Regulation and Legal Grey Areas
The extraordinarily well-timed bets have ignited speculation about insider information. Tre Upshaw, founder of Polysights, an analytics firm for Polymarket, told the Wall Street Journal it was "more likely than not that this was an insider."
While insider trading is illegal in traditional stock markets, crypto-based prediction platforms like Polymarket currently operate without such safeguards. This regulatory gap means individuals with confidential knowledge could potentially profit with impunity.
The incident has prompted a political response. Democratic Congressman Ritchie Torres announced he will introduce legislation to bar federal officials, appointees, and executive branch employees from betting on prediction markets where they might possess non-public knowledge.
Legal experts note that if the bettor was a US official, they could face prosecution. However, if they were a foreign national with advance knowledge, options for holding them accountable are limited.
Polymarket, which allows users to bet on events from elections to pop culture, has been requested for comment by The Independent.
